RHB Investment Bank said it is maintaining an overweight call on the construction sector with top picks on Gamuda (GAM), Sunway Construction (SCCG), and Kerjaya Prospek. The house reiterates that the net development expenditure (DE) under Budget 2025 is expected to remain high at c.MYR90bn – this is coupled with a decent chunk of DE allocated for the transport sub-sector, ie highways, ports, and rail projects. Risks may lie in the potential implementation of the multi-tiered foreign worker levy, which
entails higher levies for more foreign workers hired.
A net DE target of MYR395bn was earmarked during the 12th Malaysia Plan's (12MP) (2021-2025) mid-term review in Sep 2023 vs an earlier target of MYR397bn. Also, the Government raised the ceiling for gross DE under the 12MP (initially at MYR400bn) by an additional MYR15bn during the tabling of Budget 2024. Hence, it is reasonable to assume the amount of net
DE (excluding loan recoveries) will increase roughly by the same magnitude of MYR15bn to c.MYR410bn from MYR395bn previously.Assuming the Government commits to the MYR89.2bn net DE for 2024 – the total cumulative net DE from 2021 to 2024 would be c.MYR317.8bn.
Taking into consideration the estimated net DE of MYR410bn from 2021 to 2025 (under 12MP and after the ceiling was raised in Budget 2024), RHB estimate net DE for FY25 at c.MYR92.2bn. We also envisage the allocation of DE to the transportation sub-sector to be c.20-23%, as c.21% of DE was earmarked for said sub-sector under Budget 2024.
Other potential Budget 2025 developments. Firstly, whether a light rail transit (estimated cost: MYR16.7bn) or elevated autonomous rapid transit (EART) system (estimated cost: MYR7bn) is implemented in Johor Bahru. Back in May, the Transport Ministry was expected to complete a study on a proposed EART in Johor Bahru by August – potentially giving room for an
update during Budget 2025. Secondly, the house said it envisage some developments on the Juru-Sungai Dua Elevated Expressway (estimated at MYR1.8bn) in Penang – the Public Private Partnership Unit or UKAS under the Prime Minister's Department and PLUS Malaysia officially started discussions on this project in January to address the persistent traffic woes in Seberang Prai.
Key beneficiaries include GAM, SCCG, and IJM Corp, which have solid track records in government infrastructure projects. Concurrently, Gabungan AQRS and Econpile may emerge as sub-contractors for this project.
The Public-Private Partnership Masterplan 2030 (PIKAS 2030) launched in September signals the Government's intention to expedite infrastructure expansion by leveraging on private sector resources. Key potential projects (which probably never made public headlines) highlighted under PIKAS 2030 include the Kuantan-Singapore Expressway, expansion of the West Coast
Expressway (Banting-Nusajaya), Klang Logistics Corridor, Kuala LumpurKlang Expressway, and Pasir Gudang Expressway among others.
RHB Investment Bank表示,它將維持對建築業的增持看漲期權,首選的是Gamuda(GAM)、Sunway Construction (SCCG)和Kerjaya Prospek。衆議院重申,預計2025年預算下的淨開發支出(DE)將保持在900億馬幣的高位,再加上分配給交通子行業(即公路、港口和鐵路項目)的相當一部分的開發支出。風險可能在於可能實施多級外國工人稅,
需要對僱用的更多外國工人徵收更高的稅收。
在2023年9月的第12次馬來西亞計劃(1200萬令吉)(2021-2025年)中期審查中,DE淨目標爲3950億馬幣,而之前的目標爲3,970億馬幣。此外,在提交2024年預算案期間,政府將1200萬英鎊(最初爲4000億馬幣)以下的DE總額上限再提高了150億馬幣。因此,假設淨額是合理的
德國(不包括貸款回收額)將從之前的3,950億馬幣增加到4,100億馬幣,增幅大致相同,達到150億馬幣。假設政府承諾在2024年實現892億馬幣淨額——2021年至2024年的累計淨債務總額將爲3178億馬幣。
考慮到2021年至2025年的淨債務淨額估計爲4,100億馬幣(低於1200萬令吉,在2024年預算中提高上限之後),盧旺達央行估計25財年的淨債務爲922億馬幣。我們還設想,德國對交通子行業的分配爲約0.20-23%,因爲根據2024年預算,德國的約21%是專門用於該子行業的。
2025年預算案的其他潛在進展。首先,無論是在柔佛州新山實施輕軌交通(估計成本:167億馬幣)還是高架自動快速交通(EART)系統(估計成本:70億馬幣)。早在5月,交通部就預計將在8月之前完成對柔佛州新山擬議的eART的研究,這可能會爲新山的eART留出空間
2025 年預算期間的更新。其次,衆議院表示,計劃在檳城的Juru-Sungai Dua高架高速公路(估計爲18億馬幣)上進行一些開發——總理府下屬的公私合作部門或UKAS和PLUS Malaysia於1月份正式開始討論該項目,以解決Seberang Prai持續的交通問題。
主要受益者包括GaM、SCCG和iJM Corp,它們在政府基礎設施項目中有着良好的往績。同時,Gabungan AQRS和Econpile可能會成爲該項目的分包商。
9月份發佈的2030年公私夥伴關係總體規劃(PIKAS 2030)表明政府打算通過利用私營部門的資源來加快基礎設施的擴張。PIKAS 2030中重點介紹的關鍵潛在項目(可能從未成爲公開頭條新聞)包括關丹-新加坡高速公路、西海岸擴建項目
高速公路(萬丁-努沙再也)、巴生物流走廊、吉隆坡巴生高速公路和巴西古當高速公路等。