Nate Silver: Donald Trump's Election Odds Pump Could Be Noise, But Republicans 'Project Confidence' In Trump Era, Democrats 'Project Anxiety'
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's Election Odds Pump Could Be Noise, But Republicans 'Project Confidence' In Trump Era, Democrats 'Project Anxiety'
Silver explains that the movement in prediction markets can be driven by circular thinking and social media influence. He states, "Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket. On a slow news day, that becomes news, and people just let their imaginations run wild."The sudden spike in Donald Trump's chances on Polymarket to win the presidential election has prompted speculation beyond the cryptocurrency community, with some suggesting parallels to Elon Musk's involvement in Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE).
唐納德·特朗普在Polymarket上贏得總統大選的機會突然激增，這引發了加密貨幣社區以外的猜測，有人認爲這與埃隆·馬斯克參與狗狗幣（加密貨幣：DOGE）有相似之處。
What Happened: Nate Silver, renowned statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, offered insights into the recent surge on Polymarket, where Trump's chances have risen to 52.6%, compared to Kamala Harris's 46.7%.
發生了什麼：著名統計學家兼FiveThirtyEight創始人內特·西爾弗對最近保利市場的飆升提供了見解，特朗普的幾率已上升至52.6％，而卡馬拉·賀錦麗的概率爲46.7％。
Silver attributes this shift to what he calls the "doldrums" of the presidential campaign, a period of relative calm between major events. He notes, "Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they're in the doldrums."
西爾弗將這種轉變歸因於他所謂的總統競選的 「低迷」，即兩次重大事件之間的相對平靜時期。他指出：“有時候 市場情緒 有自己的想法，當交易者因爲處於低迷狀態而感到無聊和焦慮時，尤其會發生這種情況。”
Silver explains that the movement in prediction markets can be driven by circular thinking and social media influence. He states, "Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket. On a slow news day, that becomes news, and people just let their imaginations run wild."
西爾弗解釋說，預測市場的走勢可以由循環思維和社交媒體的影響力驅動。他說：「有人（比如埃隆·馬斯克）在推特上說特朗普在Polymarket取得進展。在緩慢的新聞日裏，這變成了新聞，人們只是讓自己的想象力瘋狂起來。」
Also Read: This Polymarket Trader Holds $6.4 Million In Donald Trump Election Bets—'If Not Musk, Definitely Someone Similar,' Says Veteran Trader
另請閱讀：這位Polymarket交易員在唐納德·特朗普大選中持有640萬美元的賭注——資深交易員說：「如果不是馬斯克，肯定是相似的人」
Silver highlights the asymmetries in trading behaviour, observing that "In the Trump era, Republicans tend to project confidence, while Democrats tend to project anxiety." He also notes that Polymarket's crypto-adjacent user base has become more Trump-leaning recently.
白銀強調了交易行爲的不對稱性，並指出 「在特朗普時代，共和黨人傾向於表現出信心，而民主黨人則傾向於表現出焦慮。」他還指出，Polymarket的加密相關用戶群最近變得更加傾向於特朗普。
While acknowledging the possibility of deliberate market manipulation, Silver believes it's less likely now due to increased market liquidity. He concludes by emphasizing that prediction markets at least impose a cost for being wrong, unlike social media platforms.
在承認蓄意操縱市場的可能性的同時，西爾弗認爲，由於市場流動性的增加，現在這種可能性較小。他最後強調，與社交媒體平台不同，預測市場至少會爲出錯付出代價。
Other observers, such as heavily followed X user Swann Marcus drew parallels to the Elon Musk-prompted Dogecoin price pump in 2021, suggesting the Tesla CEO may be drawing traders' attention to Trump-related bets.
其他觀察家，例如備受關注的X用戶斯旺·馬庫斯，將埃隆·馬斯克在2021年引發的狗狗幣價格上漲相提並論，這表明特斯拉首席執行官可能正在提請交易者注意與特朗普相關的賭注。
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