Vertical International Holdings Limited (HKG:8375) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 36%.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Vertical International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Electronic industry is similar at about 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

How Vertical International Holdings Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen firmly for Vertical International Holdings recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Vertical International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 9.5% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 31% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Vertical International Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Vertical International Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our look at Vertical International Holdings revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Vertical International Holdings you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.