The Yue Da International Holdings Limited (HKG:629) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 77%, which is great even in a bull market.
Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Yue Da International Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 10x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
For instance, Yue Da International Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Yue Da International Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is Yue Da International Holdings' Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Yue Da International Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 54%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 28% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Yue Da International Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Yue Da International Holdings looks quite average now. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Yue Da International Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Yue Da International Holdings (at least 1 which can't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Yue Da International Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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