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The Past Five Years for Hexcel (NYSE:HXL) Investors Has Not Been Profitable

The Past Five Years for Hexcel (NYSE:HXL) Investors Has Not Been Profitable

赫氏(紐交所:HXL)投資者過去五年並不盈利
Simply Wall St ·  10/15 07:41

For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Hexcel Corporation (NYSE:HXL), since the last five years saw the share price fall 18%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 12% in the last three months.

對很多人來說,投資的主要目的是比整體市場獲得更高的回報。但在任何投資組合中,個別股票之間會有不同的結果。目前,一些股東可能在懷疑他們對赫氏公司(紐交所:HXL)的投資,因爲過去五年股價下跌了18%。最近跌勢加劇,過去三個月股價下跌了12%。

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

現在讓我們看看這家公司的基本面,看看長期股東回報是否與基礎業務的表現相匹配。

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

引用巴菲特的話,「船隻會在世界各地航行,但扁平地球協會將空前盛行。市場上的價格和價值將繼續存在巨大差異… 」檢查市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是查看公司的股價與每股收益(EPS)之間的互動。

Hexcel became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

赫氏在過去五年內實現了盈利。大多數人會認爲這是一件好事,所以看到股價下跌是違直覺的。其他指標可能會更好地幫助我們了解其價值隨時間的變化。

We don't think that the 1.0% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. Arguably, the revenue drop of 5.7% a year for half a decade suggests that the company can't grow in the long term. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.

我們認爲1.0%在股價中並不是一個重要因素,因爲它相當小,作爲股息而言。可以說,過去半個世紀每年5.7%的營業收入下降暗示着該公司長期內無法增長。這可能鼓勵了一些股東賣出股票。

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

以下圖像顯示了公司的營業收入和盈利(隨時間變化)(單擊以查看準確的數字)。

big
NYSE:HXL Earnings and Revenue Growth October 15th 2024
紐交所:HXL 2024年10月15日盈利和營業收入增長

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Hexcel in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

我們喜歡內部股東在過去十二個月中一直在買入股份。說到這一點,大多數人認爲盈利和營業收入增長趨勢是對業務更有意義的指導。您可以通過未來利潤預估的互動圖形看到分析師對赫氏的預測。

What About Dividends?

那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Hexcel the TSR over the last 5 years was -16%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報是很重要的。而股價回報只反映了股價的變化,TSR包括股息的價值(假設它們已經再投資)以及任何折扣資本增加或分拆的好處。可以說,TSR提供了股票帶來的回報更全面的圖片。我們注意到,對於赫氏,過去5年的TSR爲-16%,比上面提到的股價回報要好。公司支付的股息因此提升了總股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的觀點

While the broader market gained around 35% in the last year, Hexcel shareholders lost 7.7% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Hexcel has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

儘管整體市場在過去一年中上漲了約35%,但赫氏股東們損失了7.7%(即使包括分紅派息在內)。有時即使是好股票的股價也會下跌,但在我們對業務的基本指標出現改善之前,我們不會產生太大興趣。遺憾的是,去年的表現爲股東們畫上了一個糟糕的句號,面對着五年內每年總損失達到3%。我們意識到巴倫·羅斯柴爾德曾說過投資者應該"在街上有血的時候買入",但我們警告投資者應首先確保他們正在購買的是一個高質量的企業。對我來說,長期對股價進行觀察作爲業務表現的一種替代是非常有趣的。但爲了真正獲得洞察力,我們也需要考慮其他信息。例如,承擔風險 - 赫氏存在2個警示信號,我們認爲您應該注意。

Hexcel is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

赫氏並不是唯一內部人士正在買入的股票。因此,快來查看這份免費名單,其中列出了一些具有吸引力估值的小盤公司,內部人士一直在買入。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

請注意,本文所引述的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

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