Pierre Ferragu Notes The Disconnect Between Media And Crypto-Based Polymarket On Trump-Harris Election Outcome: 'I Love The Dissonance'
Pierre Ferragu Notes The Disconnect Between Media And Crypto-Based Polymarket On Trump-Harris Election Outcome: 'I Love The Dissonance'
I love dissonance. Polymarket: Trump has a >60% chance to win. The press: such a tight race, but Kamala wins the popular vote, even if the Electoral College favors Trump.Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Street Research, recently expressed his views on the disconnect between prediction markets and the press regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential elections
New Street Research的分析師Pierre Ferragu最近就2024年美國總統大選中預測市場與媒體之間的脫節問題發表了看法。
What Happened: On Thursday, Ferragu took to X to highlight the contrasting narratives between the media and Polymarket— a so-called decentralized prediction market that used cryptocurrency to offer bets.
週四發生了什麼：Ferragu開始使用X突顯媒體和Polymarket之間截然不同的敘述——Polymarket是一個所謂的去中心化預測市場，利用數字貨幣提供賭注。
He pointed out that while Polymarket gave former President Donald Trump a greater than 60% chance of winning, the press painted a different picture, suggesting a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, even though the Electoral College might favor the GOP nominee.
他指出，雖然Polymarket認爲前總統特朗普有超過60%的獲勝機會，但媒體卻描繪了不同的畫面，暗示競選非常激烈，副總統賀錦麗贏得普選，即使選舉團可能更喜歡共和黨候選人。
I love dissonance. Polymarket: Trump has a >60% chance to win. The press: such a tight race, but Kamala wins the popular vote, even if the Electoral College favors Trump.
Make your bets...— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) October 17, 2024
我喜歡不一致。Polymarket：特朗普有超過60%的獲勝機會。媒體：這是一場激烈的競賽，但卡瑪拉贏得了普選，即使選舉團可能支持特朗普。
下注吧...— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 2024年10月17日
Why It Matters: Ferragu's observations come in the wake of Trump's widening lead over Harris on Polymarket, with the former President having a 62% possibility of winning at the time of writing.
爲什麼重要：在特朗普在Polymarket上擴大領先賀錦麗的情況下，Ferragu的觀察出現了，前總統在撰寫時有62%的獲勝可能性。
Similarly, Kalshi, a federally-regulated betting platform, showed 57% odds in Trump's favor, againt Harris' 43%.
同樣，由聯邦監管的博彩平台Kalshi顯示特朗普有57%的勝算，而賀錦麗爲43%。
This was in sharp contrast to national poll surveys that gave Harris an edge.
這與國家民意調查形成鮮明對比，後者顯示賀錦麗處於優勢地位。
A Marist College survey finds Harris leading Trump by five points, with 52% support to Trump's 47%. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over her Republican rival.
馬里斯特學院的一項調查發現，賀錦麗領先特朗普五個百分點，支持率爲52%，而特朗普支持率爲47%。此外，路透社/益普索的一項民意調查顯示，賀錦麗領先她的共和黨對手3個百分點。
The divergence comes amid speculation of a coordinated betting activity on Polymarket, where a single entity is suspected to have placed a massive $26 million bet on Trump's victory.
這種分歧出現在有關Polymarket上協調投注活動的猜測中，有人懷疑單一實體在特朗普獲勝上下了2600萬美元的大賭。
Polymarket, built on Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) Layer-2 protocol Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC), has gained prominence as one of the world's top prediction markets for U.S. elections.
Polymarket建立在以太幣(CRYPTO: ETH)的Layer-2協議Polygon(CRYPTO: MATIC)之上，作爲全球頂尖的美國選舉預測市場之一，已經備受關注。
