We Think Fujian Kuncai Material Technology (SHSE:603826) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Fujian Kuncai Material Technology (SHSE:603826) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603826) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他表示,與其擔心股價波動,'我擔心的是永久性損失的可能性...我認識的每個實際投資者都會擔心這一點。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過多可能導致毀滅。 我們注意到,福建坤彩科技材料有限公司(SHSE:603826)的資產負債表上確實有債務。 但這筆債務是否會引起股東的擔憂呢?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般來說,當一家公司不能輕鬆償還債務時,債務問題才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過籌資還是通過自己的現金流。在最糟糕的情況下,如果一家公司無法支付債權人,公司可能會破產。然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東權益,以控制債務。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表了廉價資本,尤其是當它取代了公司能夠以高回報率再投資的稀釋時。考慮一家公司的債務水平時的第一步是將其現金和債務合併考慮。
How Much Debt Does Fujian Kuncai Material Technology Carry?
福建坤彩科技材料的負債情況如何?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology had CN¥1.87b of debt, up from CN¥1.76b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥128.3m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.74b.
正如您所看到的,截至2024年6月底,福建坤彩材料科技的債務爲18.7億人民幣,比一年前的17.6億人民幣有所增加。 點擊圖片查看更多詳細信息。 另一方面,它有12830萬人民幣的現金,導致淨債務約爲17.4億人民幣。
How Healthy Is Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's Balance Sheet?
福建坤彩材料科技的資產負債表情況如何?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology had liabilities of CN¥2.04b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥776.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥128.3m and CN¥339.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥2.35b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,福建坤彩材料科技一年內到期的負債爲20.4億人民幣,之後到期的負債爲77620萬人民幣。另一方面,其一年內應收款項爲12830萬人民幣,應收款項總計33960萬人民幣。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收款項的總和高出23.5億人民幣。
Given Fujian Kuncai Material Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥18.3b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
考慮到福建坤彩材料科技的市值爲183億人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大威脅。話雖如此,很明顯我們應繼續監測其資產負債表,以防情況變得更糟。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9, it's fair to say Fujian Kuncai Material Technology does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 2.5 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. The good news is that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology grew its EBIT a smooth 67% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Fujian Kuncai Material Technology can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
淨債務與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率爲5.9,可以說福建坤彩材料科技確實有相當數量的債務。然而,其利息賺取倍數爲2.5,相當強,這是一個好跡象。好消息是,過去十二個月,福建坤彩材料科技的EBIT增長平穩,增長率達到67%。像這樣的增長增加了企業的韌性,使其更能夠管理債務。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中獲取了很多關於債務的信息。但最終企業未來的盈利能力將決定福建坤彩材料科技是否能夠隨着時間推進增強其資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,您可以查看這份展示分析師盈利預測的免費報告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Fujian Kuncai Material Technology saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲企業無法用紙面利潤支付債務;它需要真金白銀。因此,我們顯然需要觀察EBIT是否帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去三年裏,福建坤彩材料科技出現了相當大的負自由現金流總和。雖然投資者們無疑希望這種情況會在適當時倒轉,但這顯然意味着其債務使用更加風險。
Our View
我們的觀點
Neither Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We think that Fujian Kuncai Material Technology's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Fujian Kuncai Material Technology you should be aware of.
福建坤彩材料科技將EBIT轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以及其淨債務與EBITDA的比率,並沒有給我們帶來對其承擔更多債務能力的信心。 但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆增長其EBIT。 我們認爲福建坤彩材料科技的債務在考慮了前述數據點後,確實使其有些風險。這並不一定是件壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事項。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多關於債務。 然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表內 - 遠非如此。 以此爲例:我們發現了福建坤彩材料科技的1個警示信號,您應該注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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