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Dollar Hits 2-Month High Amid Fed Rate Speculation

Dollar Hits 2-Month High Amid Fed Rate Speculation

美元在聯邦儲備局利率猜測之際觸及兩個月高點
Business Today ·  10/22 16:17

The US dollar remained at a 2-1/2 month high on Tuesday, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will approach interest rate cuts cautiously. This strength in the dollar, further reinforced by rising Treasury yields, continued to put pressure on the yen, euro, and sterling. This trend has been gaining momentum in recent weeks as traders pull back on expectations of rapid US rate cuts.

美元週二保持在2個半月高位,受市場預期聯儲局將謹慎採取利率減息的支持。美元的強勢得到了不斷上漲的國債收益率的進一步支撐,繼續對日元、歐元和英鎊施加壓力。隨着交易員減少對美國快速減息預期的舉措近幾周來,這一趨勢一直在蓄勢待發。

Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo, commented, "The US exceptionalism story remaining intact and what Fed speakers are hinting at are gradual rate cuts from here. This, together with the betting odds of a Trump 2.0 picking up, has brought another leg of gains for the U.S. dollar."

Saxo的首席投資策略師Charu Chanana評論道:「美國特殊性的故事保持完整,以及聯儲局發言人所示意的逐步減息在這裏。與特朗普連任的博彩賠率一起,這爲美元帶來了另一個上升階段。」

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six others, stood at 103.87, having reached 104.02 on Monday, its highest level since Aug 1. So far this month, the index has risen by over 3%.

美元指數,跟蹤美元兌其他六種貨幣的匯率,站在103.87,週一達到104.02,爲8月1日以來的最高水平。截至本月,該指數已上漲超過3%。

The upcoming Beige Book, due to be released on Wednesday, is seen as a potential risk for the dollar, according to some analysts. The previous report on economic conditions was viewed as a key trigger for the 50 basis point rate cut in September, which marked the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle.

根據一些分析師的看法,即將發佈的貝葛書(Beige Book)可能對美元構成潛在風險。之前有關經濟形勢的報告被視爲9月份50個點子減息的關鍵觸發因素,標誌着聯儲局放鬆週期的開始。

Four Federal Reserve policymakers expressed their support for further rate cuts on Monday, though they appeared divided on the pace and extent of the cuts. Currently, markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, compared to a 50% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

儘管週一有四名聯儲局政策制定者表示支持進一步減息,但他們在減息的速度和幅度上似乎存在分歧。目前,市場價格反映了下個月25個點子減息的概率爲87%,而一個月前更大的50個點子減息的概率爲50%,根據cme FedWatch工具顯示。

Traders are now expecting an additional 40 basis points of easing by the end of the year.

交易員目前預計今年年底減息將額外降低40個點子。

The euro was last seen at US$1.0827, close to its lowest point since 2 August, while sterling stood at US$1.3006, near its lowest since 20 August. Thursday's eurozone PMI data could put further pressure on the single currency if it highlights the region's poor economic performance, bolstering the likelihood of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts.

歐元最近報價爲1.0827美元,接近8月2日以來的最低點,而英鎊報價爲1.3006美元,接近8月20日以來的最低點。如果週四的歐元區採購經理人指數數據凸顯了該地區經濟表現不佳,那麼將進一步增加對歐洲央行(ECB)減息可能性的壓力。

Francesco Pesole, Forex Strategist at ING, remarked, "The key question is: are the hawks fine with Lagarde's sanguine disinflation view, a gradual shift in focus to growth and such a dovish market pricing?" He added that persistent inflation in the euro zone services sector may mean the answer is no.

荷蘭國際集團外匯策略師Francesco Pesole表示:「關鍵問題是:鷹派是否接受拉加德樂觀的通貨緊縮觀點,逐漸將焦點轉向增長以及如此鴿派的市場定價?」他補充說,歐元區服務行業持續的通貨膨脹可能意味着否定的回答。

With the US election just two weeks away, the rising odds of a Donald Trump victory are also boosting the dollar. His policies on tariffs and taxes are seen as potentially keeping US interest rates elevated. However, the race remains tight, and analysts expect market volatility in the lead-up to the election results. Antti Ilvonen, Forex Analyst at Danske Bank, noted, "Even small changes in tight polls could drive seemingly erratic swings in market sentiment."

距離美國大選僅剩兩週,特朗普概念勝選的可能性日益增加,也推升了美元。他在關稅和稅收方面的政策被視爲有可能使美國利率保持較高水平。然而,選情依然激烈,分析師們預計在選舉結果公佈前市場波動性會增加。Danske銀行外匯分析師安特伊·伊爾沃寧指出,“在緊張的民調中,即使是微小的變化也可能引發看似不穩定的波動。 市場情緒."

Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.22%, its highest since July 26, which kept the yen under pressure. The Japanese yen was relatively unchanged at 150.82 per dollar, after hitting a near three-month low of 151.10.

與此同時,美國10年期國債收益率上升至4.22%,爲7月26日以來最高,這使日幣承壓。日幣兌美元相對穩定,每美元150.82日幣,之前觸及近三個月的低點151.10後未有大變化。

Takeshi Kato, Executive Director of the Bank of Japan, highlighted concerns about rising import prices due to the weakening yen. Japan is set to hold a general election on Oct 27, and despite varying opinion polls, markets are optimistic that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito will maintain their positions.

日本銀行董事加藤武,對因日幣貶值而導致進口價格上漲的擔憂進行了強調。日本將於10月27日舉行大選,儘管民意調查結果不一,市場仍然樂觀認爲執政的自民黨和其聯盟夥伴公明黨將維持其地位。

Reuters

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