We Think That There Are More Issues For Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech (SHSE:688372) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech (SHSE:688372) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
After announcing weak earnings, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech. Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688372) stock was strong. While shares were up, we believe there are some factors in the earnings report that might cause investors some concerns.
宣佈業績疲軟後,上海V-Test半導體科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688372)的股票表現強勢。雖然股價上漲,但我們認爲業績報告中存在一些因素可能會引起投資者的一些擔憂。
Examining Cashflow Against Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's Earnings
通過對上海V-Test半導體科技業績的現金流分析
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
正如財務控制狂所知,從現金流中的應計比率是評估公司自由現金流(FCF)與其利潤匹配程度的關鍵指標。應計比率從給定期間的FCF中減去利潤,並將結果除以公司在該時間內的平均經營資產。該比率告訴我們公司利潤中有多少不受自由現金流支持。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,負的應計比率對公司是積極的,而正的應計比率則是消極的。這並不意味着我們應該擔心正的應計比率,但值得注意的是應計比率相當高的地方。這是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往導致較低的利潤或利潤增長。
Over the twelve months to September 2024, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech recorded an accrual ratio of 0.31. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow was a lot less than its statutory profit, which makes us doubt the utility of profit as a guide. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥90.4m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥892m in the last year. We also note that Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥892m. Having said that it seems that a recent tax benefit and some unusual items have impacted its profit (and this its accrual ratio).
在截至2024年9月的十二個月內,上海V-Test半導體科技的應計比率爲0.31。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠低於其法定利潤,這使我們對利潤作爲指導的效用產生了懷疑。儘管它報告了人民幣9040萬的利潤,但從自由現金流情況來看,實際上在過去一年裏它支出了人民幣89200萬。我們還注意到,上海V-Test半導體科技去年的自由現金流實際上也是負數,所以我們可以理解股東對其支出89200萬人民幣的流出感到不安。話雖如此,似乎最近的稅收收益和一些飛凡項目影響了其利潤(以及其應計比率)。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥14m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
公司在去年出現飛凡項目,爲利潤增加了約1400萬元,這可能部分解釋了其應計比率如此疲弱的原因。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤增加,但當飛凡項目做出重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們分析全球大多數上市公司時,我們發現重要的飛凡項目往往不會重複出現。這並不奇怪,鑑於名稱。如果上海V-Test半導體技術公司沒有看到這種貢獻再現,那麼其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其利潤在當前年度會下降。
An Unusual Tax Situation
一種不尋常的稅務情況
Moving on from the accrual ratio, we note that Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech profited from a tax benefit which contributed CN¥7.9m to profit. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal.
繼續從應計比率方面提及,我們注意到上海V-Test半導體技術公司因稅收優惠而獲得了790萬元的利潤。這當然有點不尋常,因爲公司更常見的情況是繳納稅款而不是獲得稅收優惠!當然,從表面上看,獲得稅收優惠是很好的。然而,我們的數據顯示,稅收優惠可能會在計入當年利潤時暫時提升法定利潤,但隨後利潤可能會回落。假設稅收優惠不會每年重複,我們可能會看到其盈利能力明顯下降,其他條件相同的情況下。
Our Take On Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's Profit Performance
我們對上海V-Test半導體技術公司的利潤表現看法
Summing up, Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you'd like to know more about Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (2 are concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech.
總結一下,上海V-Test半導體技術公司的稅收優惠和飛凡項目提升了其法定利潤,導致現金轉化不佳,正如其應計比率所反映的那樣。基於上述原因,我們認爲草率地查看上海V-Test半導體技術公司的法定利潤可能會使其看起來比實際情況好一些。如果您想了解更多關於上海V-Test半導體技術公司作爲一家業務的信息,重要的是要意識到它面臨的任何風險。爲了幫助您了解,我們發現了4個警示信號(2個令人擔憂!)在購買上海V-Test半導體技術公司的任何股票之前,您應該注意。
Our examination of Shanghai V-Test Semiconductor Tech has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對上海V-Test半導體科技的檢查已經集中在一些因素上,這些因素可以使其盈利看起來比實際情況更好。基於此,我們對此持有一些懷疑。但如果您能夠將注意力集中在細枝末節上,就總會有更多的發現。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟指標,而其他人則喜歡'追蹤資金'並尋找內部人員正在購買的股票。雖然這可能需要您進行一些研究,但您可能會發現這個免費的高股本回報率公司收藏集,或者這個具有重要內部持股的股票清單對您有用。
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