It's been a pretty great week for Ganyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002991) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to CN¥70.67 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Ganyuan Foods reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥563m and statutory earnings per share of CN¥3.58, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ganyuan Foods from six analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.67b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 14% to CN¥4.87. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.97 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 19% to CN¥82.92, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ganyuan Foods analyst has a price target of CN¥86.76 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥77.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ganyuan Foods is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ganyuan Foods' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ganyuan Foods to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ganyuan Foods. They also downgraded Ganyuan Foods' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ganyuan Foods going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Ganyuan Foods (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.