Medpace Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.3% to US$328 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$533m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Medpace Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.01 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
納斯達克股票MEDP的股東可能會感到有些失望,因爲其股價在最新季度業績公佈後的一週下跌了4.3%至328美元。 儘管美國53300萬美元的營業收入與分析師的預測相符,Medpace Holdings的業績總體上是積極的,但通過提供每股3.01美元的法定利潤,超出了預期。 在公佈業績後,分析師們已經更新了他們的收益模型,了解他們是否認爲公司前景發生了巨大變化,或者是否一切如常將是很重要的。 因此,我們整理了最新的業績後法定共識估計,以了解明年可能會發生什麼。
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Medpace Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$2.29b in 2025. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.7% to US$12.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.91 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
考慮到最新業績,Medpace Holdings的11位分析師的共識預測是2025年的營業收入將達到22.9億美元。 這相比過去12個月的營業收入有明顯的11%改善。 法定每股收益預計將增長7.7%至12.69美元。 在此報告之前,分析師們一直在預測2025年的營業收入爲24億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲12.91美元。 因此,從最新的業績公告可以看出,分析師們對這些預期變得稍微不那麼樂觀,預計儘管公司應該保持每股收益,但營業收入將下降。
It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 6.9% to US$349following these changes. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Medpace Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$404 and the most bearish at US$296 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
毫無疑問,隨着這些變化,共識價格目標下調了6.9%至349美元。 共識價格目標只是各個分析師目標的平均值,因此查看基礎估算範圍有多寬可能會很有幫助。 對於Medpace Holdings,存在一些不同的看法,最樂觀的分析師將其價值定爲404美元,最悲觀的則爲296美元每股。 這些價格目標表明分析師對業務存在一些不同看法,但估計並不足以表明有些人在押注大獲成功或徹底失敗。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Medpace Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Medpace Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
從更大的範圍來看,我們可以理解這些預測的方式之一是將其與過去的業績和行業增長預期進行對比。很明顯,人們預期Medpace Holdings的營業收入增長將大幅放緩,預計到2025年底,年增長率將爲8.4%。與過去五年的20%的歷史增長率相比。相比之下,此行業中其他受到分析師關注的公司預計其營業收入將以6.6%的年增長率增長。因此很明顯,儘管Medpace Holdings的營業收入增長預計將放緩,但預計仍將比行業本身增長快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最明顯的結論是,最近該企業的前景沒有發生重大變化,分析師們保持了他們的盈利預測不變,與以前的估計相一致。可惜的是,他們也下調了營業收入的預估值,但最新的預測仍然意味着該企業將比整個行業增長更快。儘管如此,每股收益對股東的價值創造更加重要。此外,分析師們還調低了他們的股價目標,表明最新的消息導致了對企業內在價值更加悲觀的看法。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Medpace Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
接下來,我們認爲,公司的長期前景比明年的收益更重要。我們有多個Medpace Holdings分析師的預測,到2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
另一件需要考慮的事情是管理層和董事最近是否在買賣股票。在我們的平台上,您可以查看過去12個月所有公開市場股票交易的概述。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。