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Is Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) (SHSE:600496) A Risky Investment?

Is Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) (SHSE:600496) A Risky Investment?

長江 & 金工鋼鐵建設(集團)(SHSE:600496)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/10/28 20:21

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) Co., Ltd (SHSE:600496) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

David Iben說得很好,「波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。」因此,聰明的投資者知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估公司風險程度時非常重要的因素。我們注意到長江和金工鋼鐵建築(集團)股份有限公司(SHSE:600496)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務產生了多大風險?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或按優惠價格提高資本來輕鬆滿足這些債務時,負債和其他負債變得有風險。歸根到底,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,則股東可能一無所獲。但是,更頻繁(但同樣昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以加強其資產負債表。話雖如此,最常見的情況是,公司合理地管理其債務,並用自己的利益來處理。在考慮公司的債務水平時的第一步是考慮其現金和債務的總和。

What Is Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s Net Debt?

長江和金工鋼鐵建築(集團)的淨債務是多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) had CN¥3.80b in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥4.87b in cash, so it actually has CN¥1.08b net cash.

下面的圖表顯示,您可以點擊以獲取更詳細信息,顯示長江和金工鋼鐵建築(集團)在2024年6月有38億人民幣的債務;與前一年大致相同。然而,其資產負債表顯示,公司持有48.7億人民幣的現金,因此實際上淨現金爲10.8億人民幣。

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SHSE:600496 Debt to Equity History October 29th 2024
SHSE:600496債務與股本歷史數據2024年10月29日

How Healthy Is Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s Balance Sheet?

長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)的資產負債表有多健康?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) had liabilities of CN¥12.5b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.46b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥4.87b and CN¥11.9b worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast CN¥1.82b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)有一年內到期的負債爲125億人民幣,而到期日超過一年的負債爲24.6億人民幣。 另一方面,它有48.7億人民幣的現金和119億人民幣的應收賬款到期。 因此,它擁有18.2億人民幣的流動資產超過總負債。

This excess liquidity is a great indication that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s balance sheet is almost as strong as Fort Knox. On this view, lenders should feel as safe as the beloved of a black-belt karate master. Succinctly put, Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種過剩的流動性是長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)資產負債表幾乎與美國黃金庫一樣強大的很好指標。 從這一角度看,借款人應該感覺像黑帶空手道大師的愛人一樣安全。 簡而言之,長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)擁有淨現金,所以可以說它並沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In fact Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 40% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

事實上,長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)的救贖之處是其低債務水平,因爲其EBIT在過去十二個月下降了40%。 收入下降(如果趨勢持續)最終可能會使即使是適度債務也變得相當冒險。 在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的區域。 但最重要的是未來收入,而不是任何其他因素,將決定長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。 因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師盈利預測的免費報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。 雖然長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得看一下它將利息和稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解它構建(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。 在過去三年中,長江精工鋼鐵建設(集團)總體錄得負的自由現金流。 債務通常更昂貴,幾乎總是更具風險,尤其是在持有負的自由現金流的公司手中。 股東應期望有所改善。

Summing Up

總之

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) has net cash of CN¥1.08b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)'s debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

雖然我們理解投資者對債務感到擔憂,但您應該記住長江鏡共鋼鐵建築(集團)擁有10.8億人民幣的淨現金,以及比負債更多的流動資產。所以我們對長江鏡共鋼鐵建築(集團)的債務使用並不感到困擾。資產負債表明顯是您分析債務時應關注的重點領域。但最終,每家公司可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。例如 - 長江鏡共鋼鐵建築(集團)有3個警告信號,我們認爲您應該注意。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切塵埃落定時,有時更容易專注於那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費查看零淨債務的成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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