Is CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology (SZSE:300388) A Risky Investment?
Is CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology (SZSE:300388) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300388) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
傳奇基金經理李錄(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過,「最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」 所以當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務可能會拖垮一家公司。 我們注意到,節能國禎環保科技股份有限公司(SZSE:300388)確實在其資產負債表上有債務。 但這筆債務是否令股東擔憂呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
負債可以幫助企業,直到企業無法通過新的資本或自由現金流償還負債的時候爲止。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人,它可能會破產。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是公司必須以低廉的股票價格稀釋股東,以控制負債。當然,負債可以是企業中重要的工具,特別是在資本密集型企業中。當我們考慮公司使用負債時,我們首先查看現金和負債的結合。
How Much Debt Does CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology Carry?
節能國禎環保科技負債情況如何?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology had CN¥8.75b of debt, an increase on CN¥8.28b, over one year. However, it does have CN¥1.14b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥7.60b.
你可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但它顯示截至2024年9月,節能國禎環保科技負債87.5億人民幣,相比一年前的82.8億人民幣有所增加。然而,它也有11.4億人民幣的現金抵消這部分債務,導致淨債務約爲76億人民幣。
How Strong Is CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology's Balance Sheet?
中廣核國禎環保科技的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology had liabilities of CN¥5.71b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥6.22b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥1.14b in cash and CN¥4.37b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥6.42b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,中廣核國禎環保科技一年內到期的負債爲57.1億人民幣,而之後到期的負債爲62.2億人民幣。相對應的,公司有11.4億人民幣的現金和43.7億人民幣的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總計比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多64.2億人民幣。
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's CN¥5.30b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
當考慮到這一遜古超過公司53億人民幣的市值時,您可能會傾向於仔細審查資產負債表。假設公司被迫以當前股價籌集資本償還債務,可能需要進行極大程度的股權稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
爲了比較一個公司的債務與其收益的關係,我們計算其淨債務除以利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆蓋率)。因此,我們考慮了債務的絕對數量以及支付的利率。
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2, it's fair to say CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 3.4 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. However, one redeeming factor is that CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology grew its EBIT at 16% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
淨債務與EBITDA比率爲6.2,可以說中廣核國禎環保科技確實有相當數量的債務。然而,其利息保障倍數爲3.4,相對較強,這是一個好跡象。然而,一大優勢是中廣核國禎環保科技在過去12個月將EBIT增長了16%,提升了其處理債務的能力。在分析債務時,資產負債表明顯是需要關注的領域。但最終能否維持健康的資產負債表主要由未來收入決定。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,可能會覺得有興趣閱讀這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
最後,雖然稅收部門可能喜愛會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,我們始終查看EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。過去三年,中廣核國禎環保科技錄得了負自由現金流的累計數。負自由現金流意味着債務通常更昂貴,幾乎總是更具風險,尤其是在負自由現金流的公司手中。股東們希望公司有所改善。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
坦率地說,節能國禎環保科技將EBIT轉換爲自由現金流的能力以及其根據EBITDA管理債務的記錄,使我們對其債務水平感到相當不安。但至少它在增長EBIT方面表現相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。我們非常清楚,我們認爲節能國禎環保科技在資產負債表健康狀況的情況下確實相當風險。因此,我們對這支股票非常謹慎,我們認爲股東應該密切關注其流動性。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是起步點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都在資產負債表內,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了2個對節能國禎環保科技的警示信號(其中1個相當重要!),在您投資前應該注意這些。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。