The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on SG Micro Corp (SZSE:300661), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥868m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 36%, coming in at just CN¥0.22 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for SG Micro from twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.13b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 30% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 78% to CN¥1.60. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥4.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.60 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CN¥87.43, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic SG Micro analyst has a price target of CN¥118 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥58.46. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of SG Micro'shistorical trends, as the 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 25% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 23% per year. So although SG Micro is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SG Micro going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with SG Micro , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.