We Think Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd (SHSE:688097) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd (SHSE:688097) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688097) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格所支持的外部基金經理李錄在談論投資風險時直言不諱,他表示'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。' 當你考慮一個公司的風險時,自然要看其資產負債表,因爲企業倒閉通常涉及債務。我們看到寶儀精工科技股份有限公司(SHSE:688097)確實在業務中使用債務。但這筆債務會不會讓股東感到擔憂呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還貸款,那麼它存在取決於債權人的情況。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所有。然而,更常見的(但仍然昂貴)情況是,公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東權益,以控制債務。當然,許多公司使用債務來資助增長,沒有任何負面後果。在考慮企業使用了多少債務時,首要之事是同時查看其現金和債務。
What Is Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd's Debt?
博仲精密工業科技有限公司的債務是什麼?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd had debt of CN¥1.85b, up from CN¥1.43b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥1.07b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥782.4m.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊查看更詳細信息,顯示截至2024年6月,寶儀精工科技有限公司的債務爲18.5億人民幣,比一年前的14.3億人民幣有所增加。然而,由於其現金儲備爲10.7億人民幣,其淨債務較少,約爲78240萬元。
How Healthy Is Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd's Balance Sheet?
博仲精密工業科技有限公司的資產負債表狀況如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥4.24b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥406.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.07b and CN¥3.04b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥546.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
仔細查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到博仲精密工業科技有限公司的流動負債爲42.4億人民幣,在12個月內到期,超過這一期限的負債爲40610萬人民幣。另一方面,公司有10.7億人民幣的現金和30.4億人民幣的應收款項,在一年內到期。因此,其負債總額爲54690萬人民幣,比其現金和近期應收款項總和多出。
Of course, Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥10.9b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
當然,博仲精密工業科技有限公司的市值爲109億人民幣,所以這些負債可能是可管理的。然而,我們認爲值得關注其資產負債表的實力,因爲隨着時間的推移,狀況可能會發生改變。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
爲了衡量公司相對於其收益的債務情況,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆蓋率)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨負債與 EBITDA),又考慮到了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(其利息覆蓋率)。
With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.8, Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 9.0 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. Shareholders should be aware that Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd's EBIT was down 25% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
博仲精密工業科技有限公司的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率爲1.8,債務使用得當且負責任。而誘人的利息償付倍數(EBIt是利息支出的9.0倍)確實沒有消除這種印象。股東應該意識到,博仲精密工業科技有限公司的EBIt去年下降了25%。如果這種下降持續,償還債務會比在素食者大會上賣鵝肝更困難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終業務的未來盈利能力將決定博仲精密工業科技有限公司是否能夠隨着時間增強其資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,雖然稅務人員可能很喜歡會計利潤,但債權人只接受冰冷的現金。所以我們明顯需要看一下EBIT是否導致相應的自由現金流。過去三年,博中精密工業科技有限公司出現了相當大的負自由現金流總額。雖然這可能是爲了增長而支出,但確實使債務變得更加風險。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Bozhon Precision Industry TechnologyLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
坦率地說,博中精密工業科技有限公司將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的情況以及其EBIT增長(或不增長)的記錄讓我們對其債務水平感到不安。但好消息是,其利息保障率是一個好跡象,讓我們更加樂觀。當我們綜合考慮上述所有因素時,似乎博中精密工業科技有限公司的債務讓其變得有些冒險。這並不一定是一件壞事,但我們通常更願意降低槓桿。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解債務的最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中 - 遠非如此。我們已經確定了博中精密工業科技有限公司的2個警示信號,了解並計入投資過程中應該是不可或缺的。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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