Last week, you might have seen that Ninebot Limited (SHSE:689009) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to CN¥44.59 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.83 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of CN¥4.2b came in 4.3% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ninebot from nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥18.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 33% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 25% to CN¥2.08. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥17.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.98 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 7.5% to CN¥52.63. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ninebot analyst has a price target of CN¥62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥35.60. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Ninebot's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 25% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ninebot is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Ninebot following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ninebot going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Ninebot that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.