Is Viva Goods (HKG:933) A Risky Investment?
Is Viva Goods (HKG:933) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Viva Goods Company Limited (HKG:933) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
霍華德·馬克斯把它表達得很好,他說,與其擔心股價波動,'永久損失的可能性才是我擔心的風險...而我認識的每位實際投資者都在擔心這個問題。所以看來聰明的投資者知道,債務(通常包括在破產中)是評估公司風險性有多大的一個非常重要因素。我們可以看到,非凡領越有限公司(HKG:933)的業務中確實使用了債務。但股東們應該擔心它使用債務嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果一個企業無法償還其債權人,那麼它就必須等待債權人的憐憫。資本主義的一部分是「創造性毀滅」過程,即破產的公司會被銀行殘酷地清算。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦的)情況是,它必須以低價募集新股權資本,從而永久地稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價的資本,特別是當它取代了在具有高回報率的公司重新投資的股權稀釋時。當我們考慮一家公司對債務的使用時,我們首先看現金和負債。
How Much Debt Does Viva Goods Carry?
非凡領越攜帶多少債務?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Viva Goods had debt of HK$917.1m, up from HK$803.5m in one year. But it also has HK$1.42b in cash to offset that, meaning it has HK$504.0m net cash.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊查看更詳細信息,顯示截至2024年6月,非凡領越的債務爲91710萬港元,比一年前的80350萬港元有所增加。但它也有14.2億港元的現金資金來抵消,這意味着它有50400萬港元的淨現金。
How Strong Is Viva Goods' Balance Sheet?
非凡領越的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Viva Goods had liabilities of HK$3.62b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$2.25b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$1.42b as well as receivables valued at HK$819.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$3.63b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,非凡領越有36.2億港元的短期負債,以及之後到期的22.5億港元的債務。 抵消這些義務,它擁有14.2億港元的現金,以及價值81910萬港元的應收賬款,12個月內到期。 因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收款項的組合多出36.3億港元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of HK$5.45b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Viva Goods' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Viva Goods boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load! There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Viva Goods will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
相對於其54.5億港元的市值,這個赤字相當可觀,因此確實表明股東應該密切關注非凡領越的債務使用。 如果其債權人要求鞏固資產負債表,股東可能面臨嚴重稀釋。儘管其顯著的負債,非凡領越擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔! 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的大部分情況。 但你不能孤立地看待債務;因爲非凡領越將需要收入來償還債務。 因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得看一看盈利趨勢。 點擊這裏查看互動快照。
Over 12 months, Viva Goods made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to HK$11b, which is a fall of 6.2%. That's not what we would hope to see.
在過去的12個月裏,非凡領越在EBIt水平上虧損,並看到其營業收入下降到110億港元,下降了6.2%。 這不是我們希望看到的。
So How Risky Is Viva Goods?
非凡領越有多大風險?
Although Viva Goods had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last twelve months, it generated positive free cash flow of HK$507m. So although it is loss-making, it doesn't seem to have too much near-term balance sheet risk, keeping in mind the net cash. Until we see some positive EBIT, we're a bit cautious of the stock, not least because of the rather modest revenue growth. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Viva Goods , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
儘管在過去十二個月內非凡領越EBIT虧損,但其產生了50700萬港元的正自由現金流。 因此,儘管虧損,考慮到淨現金,它似乎沒有太多短期資產負債表風險。 在看到一些正面的EBIt之前,我們對股票有點謹慎,至少部分原因是收入增長相當適度。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的大部分情況。 但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。 我們已經發現了1個與非凡領越有關的警告信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。
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