It's shaping up to be a tough period for Ecovacs Robotics Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603486), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥3.2b missed by 14%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.01 fell short of forecasts by 98%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ecovacs Robotics' 17 analysts is for revenues of CN¥18.2b in 2025. This would reflect a huge 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 155% to CN¥2.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥18.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.81 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CN¥52.21. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ecovacs Robotics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥61.00 and the most bearish at CN¥42.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Ecovacs Robotics shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ecovacs Robotics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Ecovacs Robotics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ecovacs Robotics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Ecovacs Robotics you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.