Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd (SHSE:600325) Shareholders Have Earned a 15% CAGR Over the Last Three Years
Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd (SHSE:600325) Shareholders Have Earned a 15% CAGR Over the Last Three Years
One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Zhuhai Huafa Properties Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600325) shareholders have seen the share price rise 32% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (17%, not including dividends).
從股市中獲利的一個簡單方法是買入指數基金。但是如果選擇正確的個別股票,則可能獲得更高的回報。例如,華發股份有限公司(SHSE:600325)的股東在過去三年中見證了股價上漲32%,遠遠超過市場的下跌(17%,不包括分紅派息)。
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
讓我們長期看一下潛在的基本面,看看它們是否與股東回報一致。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
雖然一些人仍然在教授高效市場假說,但已經證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者不總是理性的。一種有缺陷但合理的評估公司情緒變化的方法是比較每股收益 (EPS) 與股價。
Over the last three years, Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 36% (annualized).
在過去的三年中,華發股份有限公司未能增長每股收益,其每股收益下降了36%(平均年化)。
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.
這意味着市場不太可能基於盈利增長來評估該公司。因此,我們認爲值得考慮其他指標。
We doubt the dividend payments explain the share price rise, since we don't see any improvement in that regard. But it's far more plausible that the revenue growth of 9.0% per year is viewed as evidence that Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd is growing. In that case, the revenue growth might be more important to shareholders, for now, thus justifying a higer share price.
我們懷疑股息支付是否解釋了股價上漲,因爲在這方面我們沒有看到任何改善。但更有可能的是,每年9.0%的營業收入增長被視爲珠海華發股份有限公司正在增長的證據。在這種情況下,營業收入增長可能對股東更爲重要,因此有可能支撐更高的股價。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
以下圖片顯示了收益和營收隨時間的變化(如果你點擊圖片,可以看到更詳細的信息)。
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
你可以在這個免費的互動圖表中看到它的資產負債表如何隨着時間的推移而加強(或削弱)。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd, it has a TSR of 53% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
除了衡量股價回報,投資者還應該考慮總股東回報(TSR)。股價回報僅反映了股價的變化,而TSR包括股息價值(假設進行了再投資)以及任何折價資本籌集或剝離的益處。因此,對於支付慷慨股息的公司,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。就珠海華發股份有限公司而言,過去3年其TSR爲53%。這超過了我們先前提到的股價回報。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
A Different Perspective
另一種看法
While the broader market gained around 6.3% in the last year, Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd shareholders lost 10.0% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Zhuhai Huafa PropertiesLtd is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...
在過去一年中,儘管更廣泛的市場上漲了大約6.3%,但珠海華發股份有限公司的股東們卻損失了10.0%(甚至包括分紅)。即使好股票的股價有時會下跌,但我們希望在對業務的基本指標有所改善之前,不要過於感興趣。長期投資者不會那麼沮喪,因爲在過去五年中每年都可以獲得5%的收益。如果基本數據繼續表明長期可持續增長,當前的拋售可能是值得考慮的機會。我發現長期觀察股價作爲業績的替代品非常有趣。但爲了真正獲得洞察力,我們也需要考慮其他信息。即便如此,請注意,根據我們的投資分析,珠海華發股份有限公司正在顯示出5個警示信號,其中2個不容忽視...
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您願意查看另一家公司(具有潛在的更好財務狀況),請不要錯過這個免費的公司列表,證明它們可以增長收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。