Biden Can Blame Boeing For Massive Jobs Data Miss
Biden Can Blame Boeing For Massive Jobs Data Miss
Brusuelas argues that this slowdown isn't necessarily bad for the economy and could put the U.S. on track for more sustainable growth.Friday's jobs report showed that the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below the estimates of 106,000 and the 223,000 jobs that were added in the previous month. But economist Joe Brusuelas says the weak number is in large part due to the Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) machinist strike and labor interruptions from hurricanes Milton and Helene.
According to Brusuelas' data, Boeing's strike caused the loss of roughly 40,000 jobs in the manufacturing space. Hurricanes Milton and Helene led to the temporary loss of thousands more jobs, helping explain the significant weakness of October's jobs report.
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星期五的就業報告顯示，美國經濟十月份僅增加了1.2萬個工作崗位，遠低於預期的10.6萬個工作崗位，也低於上個月增加的22.3萬個工作崗位。但經濟學家喬·布魯斯拉斯表示，這一弱勢數據在很大程度上是由於波音公司（紐交所：BA）的機械工人罷工和颶風米爾頓和海倫的勞工中斷所致。
根據布魯斯拉斯的數據，波音的罷工導致製造業空間大約損失了4萬個工作崗位。颶風米爾頓和海倫導致成千上萬個工作崗位的暫時流失，有助於解釋十月份就業報告的顯著弱勢。
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Brusuelas, the principal & chief economist at RSM, argues that while the number may be alarming, it should not be interpreted as a sign of a dramatic slowdown in the labor market. Once the Boeing strike subsides and labor markets in hurricane-impacted regions are normalizing, job growth should be back in the 100,000-150,000 per month range, Brusuelas said in a Friday note.
"Those distortions will fade from the data over the next two months and should be interpreted as noise and not a deviation from the underlying trend in job growth that we think is roughly somewhere near 120,000 per month," Brusuelas said.
RSM首席經濟學家布魯斯拉斯認爲，雖然這一數字可能令人擔憂，但不應將其解讀爲勞動力市場急劇放緩的跡象。布魯斯拉斯在週五的一份聲明中表示，一旦波音的罷工平息，以及受颶風影響的地區勞動力市場開始恢復正常，就業增長應該會恢復到每月10萬到15萬的區間。
「這些扭曲將在接下來的兩個月內消失在數據中，應被解讀爲噪音，而不是偏離我們認爲大致約爲每月12萬個的就業增長趨勢的偏差，」 布魯斯拉斯說。
While October's jobs number may be an outlier, there has been a slowdown in the labor market, but one that is not as drastic as October's report would suggest. The unemployment rate has ticked higher from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to more than 4% now.
儘管十月的就業數字可能是一個異常值，但勞動力市場的放緩確實存在，但不像十月的報告所暗示的那樣嚴重。失業率從2023年4月的3.4%的低點上升到現在超過4%。
Brusuelas argues that this slowdown isn't necessarily bad for the economy and could put the U.S. on track for more sustainable growth.
"While we would agree that hiring is slowing from the turbocharged early months as the economy emerged from the pandemic, we would make the case that it is slowing to a pace that is far more sustainable as the economy stands at full employment," Brusuelas wrote.
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布魯斯拉斯認爲，這種放緩對經濟並非一定是壞事，並且可能使美國走上更可持續增長的軌道。
「雖然我們同意，招聘速度從早期衝出疫情的幾個月開始放緩，但我們認爲這種放緩的速度更加可持續，因爲經濟正處於充分就業狀態，」 布魯斯拉斯寫道。
繼續閱讀:
- US Economy Adds Only 12,000 Jobs In October, Sharply Misses Estimates As Hurricanes, Strikes Pummel Hiring
- 美國經濟在十月僅增加了12,000個就業崗位，大大低於預期，受到颶風、罷工的影響，招聘活動受到重創
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
