share_log

Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Earnings Miss: Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 71% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

盈利不及預期:江蘇洋河酒廠股份有限公司每股收益低於預期71%,分析師正在調整他們的預測
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/01 18:25

As you might know, Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002304) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥4.6b) coming in 41% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.41 fell 71% short. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

正如您所知,江蘇洋河酒廠股份有限公司(深交所代碼:002304)上週發佈了最新季度報告,結果對股東來說並不理想。分析師們在結果發佈前顯得過於樂觀,營業收入爲46億人民幣,低於他們預期的41%。法定每股收益爲0.41人民幣,低於預期71%。這是投資者一個重要的時刻,因爲他們可以在報告中跟蹤公司的表現,查看專家對明年的預測,並了解業務預期是否有變化。因此,我們收集了最新的業績後的預測,看看估計值對於明年有什麼展望。

big
SZSE:002304 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2024
深交所:002304 每股收益和營業收入增長 2024年11月1日

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥35.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to CN¥6.90. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥36.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.16 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

考慮到最新的結果,來自21位分析師的對江蘇洋河酒廠的最新共識是,2025年的營業收入爲355億人民幣。如果實現,這將意味着相比過去12個月,其營業收入將增加17%。每股收益預計將上漲24%,達到6.90人民幣。在這份業績之前,分析師們曾預測2025年的營業收入爲364億人民幣,每股收益(每股收益)爲7.16人民幣。考慮到收入預測的下降和每股收益預期的輕微下降,分析師們的看好程度低於之前的水平。

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥96.69, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery at CN¥145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥61.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

分析師們對其價格目標並沒有做出重大改變,維持在96.69人民幣,這表明這些下調不預計會對江蘇洋河酒廠的估值產生長期影響。查看分析師估計的區間,評估不同意見與平均水平的差距也是很有啓發性的。目前,最看好的分析師將江蘇洋河酒廠的價值定爲145人民幣每股,而最看淡的則定爲61.60人民幣。請注意分析師價格目標之間的巨大差距?這向我們暗示,對於基礎業務存在相當廣泛的可能情形。

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

當然,另一種看待這些預測的方法是將其置於行業本身的背景下。最新的估計清楚地表明江蘇洋河酒廠的增長速度預計將顯著加快,預計到2025年底年化營業收入增長爲13%,明顯快於過去五年的歷史增長率11%。將其與同一行業的其他公司進行比較,後者預計年均營業收入增長11%。江蘇洋河酒廠的增長預計與行業的增長率大致相同,因此我們並不清楚相對於競爭對手的增長能否得出任何結論。

The Bottom Line

結論

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

最大的問題是分析師們降低了每股收益的預期,這表明江蘇洋河大麴面臨的業務挑戰可能逐漸顯現。雖然他們也下調了營業收入的預期,但正如我們之前看到的,預計的增長僅與更廣泛的行業相當。共識價格目標沒有實質性變化,這表明該業務的內在價值在最新預估中沒有發生重大變化。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

鑑於此,我們不應該急於對江蘇洋河大麴下結論。長期盈利能力遠比明年的利潤更爲重要。我們有來自多位江蘇洋河大麴分析師的預估,時間跨度到2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。

Even so, be aware that Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

即便如此,需要注意的是,在我們的投資分析中,江蘇洋河釀酒出現了1個預警信號,您應該了解到...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論