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We Think Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's (SHSE:603536) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

We Think Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's (SHSE:603536) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

我們認爲山東匯發食品股份有限公司(SHSE:603536)的利潤僅是他們可以實現的基準
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/01 19:58

Even though Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.,Ltd.'s (SHSE:603536) recent earnings release was robust, the market didn't seem to notice. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.

儘管惠發食品(股票代碼:603536)最近的業績表現強勁,市場似乎並沒有注意到。我們認爲投資者忽視了一些支持利潤數據的積極因素。

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SHSE:603536 Earnings and Revenue History November 1st 2024
股票代碼603536的營業收入和歷史數據 2024年11月1日

Zooming In On Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's Earnings

聚焦惠發食品的營業收入

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

正如金融迷已知,從現金流量的計提比率是評估公司自由現金流(FCF)與利潤匹配情況的關鍵指標。簡而言之,這個比率會從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該期間公司的平均經營資產。您可以將現金流計提比率視爲「非FCF利潤比率」。

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

因此,當一個公司應記比率爲負數時,實際上這被視爲一件好事,而如果該比率爲正數則被視爲一件壞事。這並不意味着我們應該擔心正的應記比率,但值得注意的是,當應計比率相當高時,引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年的一篇論文"高應計的公司未來的盈利能力較差"。

Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd has an accrual ratio of -0.12 for the year to September 2024. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥104m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥9.23m. Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

惠發食品在截至2024年9月的年度的應計比率爲-0.12。這意味着它的現金轉換良好,且暗示其自由現金流大幅超過了去年的利潤。換句話說,在此期間它產生了10400萬人民幣的自由現金流,遠遠超過了923萬人民幣的報告利潤。惠發食品的自由現金流在過去一年有所改善,這通常是好現象。話雖如此,事情並不止於此。應計比率反映了非常規項目對法定利潤的影響,至少在一定程度上。

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd.

注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的穩健性。點擊這裏查看我們對惠發食品的資產負債表分析。

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。

Surprisingly, given Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥4.3m in unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

出乎意料的是,考慮到惠發食品的應計比率暗示了強勁的現金轉換,其紙面利潤實際上是由於飛凡項目的430萬人民幣的貢獻而提升的。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤的增長,但當飛凡項目有大幅貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。當我們對數千家上市公司的數據進行分析時,我們發現某一年飛凡項目的貢獻通常在下一年並不會重現。畢竟,這正是會計術語所暗示的。如果惠發食品沒有看到這種貢獻的重現,那麼在所有條件相同的情況下,我們預計其利潤將在當前年度下降。

Our Take On Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's Profit Performance

我們對惠發食品的利潤表現的看法

In conclusion, Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Based on these factors, it's hard to tell if Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd's profits are a reasonable reflection of its underlying profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Shandong Huifa FoodstuffLtd you should be mindful of and 1 of these bad boys shouldn't be ignored.

總之,惠發食品的應計比率表明其法定收益質量不錯,但另一方面,利潤是由於飛凡項目的提升。根據這些因素,很難判斷惠發食品的利潤是否合理反映其潛在盈利能力。因此,雖然收益質量很重要,但同樣重要的是要考慮惠發食品目前面臨的風險。舉個例子:我們發現惠發食品有2個警告信號,你應該對此保持警覺,其中1個不容忽視。

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

在本文中,我們已經考慮了許多因素,這些因素可能會影響利潤數字作爲業務指南的效用。但如果您有能力專注於細節,總是可以發現更多。例如,許多人認爲高淨資產回報率是有利的業務經濟指標,而其他人則喜歡「跟隨資金」並尋找內部人員正在買入的股票。儘管這可能需要您進行一些研究,但您可能會發現這個免費的高淨資產回報率的公司集合,或者這個持有重要內部股權的股票清單是有用的。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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