We Believe Shengtak New Material's (SZSE:300881) Earnings Are A Poor Guide For Its Profitability
We Believe Shengtak New Material's (SZSE:300881) Earnings Are A Poor Guide For Its Profitability
Shengtak New Material Co., Ltd (SZSE:300881) recently released a strong earnings report, and the market responded by raising the share price. While the headline numbers were strong, we found some underlying problems once we started looking at what drove earnings.
勝特新材料股份有限公司(SZSE:300881)最近發佈了強勁的收益報告,市場對此作出了積極響應,股價上漲。儘管頭條數據不錯,但一旦我們開始分析收益的推動因素,就發現了一些潛在問題。
Examining Cashflow Against Shengtak New Material's Earnings
審查現金流與勝特新材料的收益對比
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
在高金融領域中,用於衡量公司如何將申報利潤轉換爲自由現金流(FCF)的關鍵比率是應計比率(來自現金流)。應計比率從給定期間的FCF中減去利潤,然後將結果除以公司在該期間平均經營資產。這個比率告訴我們有多少公司的利潤不是由自由現金流支撐的。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,當一家公司的淨應計流量比率爲負數時,實際上它被認爲是一件好事,但是如果它的應計流量比率爲正數,那麼就是一件壞事了。儘管應計流量比率高於零時並不值得擔憂,但當一家公司的應計流量比率相對較高時,我們認爲值得注意。原因是一些學術研究表明高的應計比率往往導致利潤或利潤增長較少。
Shengtak New Material has an accrual ratio of 0.65 for the year to September 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥519m despite its profit of CN¥241.0m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥519m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年9月,勝特新材料的應計比率爲0.65。一般來說,這對未來的盈利能力不利。換句話說,該公司在這段時間內沒有產生自由現金流。在過去的十二個月中,儘管盈利爲24100萬元人民幣,但實際上它的自由現金流是負值,流出爲5,1900萬元人民幣。考慮到去年的負自由現金流,我們想象一些股東可能會擔心,今年的5,1900萬元人民幣的現金燃燒是否表示高風險。話雖如此,事情還有更多。我們可以看到,一些不尋常項目已對其法定利潤產生影響,並因此影響了應計比率。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shengtak New Material.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的強度。點擊這裏查看我們對勝特新材料的資產負債表分析。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀釋之外,還應該注意的是,萬集科技在過去12個月中因不尋常項目獲得了價值人民幣3.5萬元的利潤。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當這些不尋常項目對利潤做出重大貢獻時,我們會更加謹慎。我們對全球大部分上市公司的數據進行了分析,發現不尋常項目往往是一次性的。這正如我們所期望的那樣,因爲這些提升被描述爲"不尋常"。相對於其利潤而言,萬集科技在2021年12月前的不尋常項目貢獻大。因此,我們可以推斷出,這些不尋常項目正在使其財務利潤顯著增強。
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥21m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
公司去年出現飛凡項目,推動利潤增加了2100萬人民幣,這或許在一定程度上解釋了爲什麼其應計比率如此弱。雖然利潤增加總是令人高興,但來自飛凡項目的巨額貢獻有時會使我們的熱情減退。當我們對成千上萬家上市公司的數據進行分析時,發現在某一年得到飛凡項目的推動往往不會在下一年重複。考慮到其名字,這並不令人驚訝。假設這些飛凡項目在當年不再出現,我們因此預計明年的利潤將偏弱(在沒有業務增長的情況下)。
Our Take On Shengtak New Material's Profit Performance
我們對盛泰新材料的盈利表現的看法
Summing up, Shengtak New Material received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shengtak New Material's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you'd like to know more about Shengtak New Material as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shengtak New Material (1 is concerning) you should be familiar with.
總體來說,盛泰新材料從飛凡項目獲得了可觀的利潤提升,但未能用自由現金流匹配其賬面利潤。基於上述理由,我們認爲匆匆一瞥盛泰新材料的法定利潤可能使其看起來比實際情況好。如果您想了解更多關於盛泰新材料作爲一家企業的信息,重要的是要意識到其面臨的風險。例如,我們已經確定了盛泰新材料的3個警示信號(其中1個令人擔憂),您應該熟悉。
Our examination of Shengtak New Material has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我們對盛泰新材料的審查集中在可以使其盈利看起來比實際情況更好的某些因素上。基於這一點,我們對此持懷疑態度。但有很多其他方法可以幫助您評估一家公司。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟指標,而其他人則喜歡『追蹤資金』並尋找內部人士在購買的股票。因此,您可能希望查看這份免費的高股本回報率公司集合,或者查看具有高內部持股的股票清單。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。