As you might know, Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd (SHSE:603885) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Revenues were CN¥6.5b, 18% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CN¥0.34 being in line with what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Juneyao Airlines from 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥26.2b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 163% to CN¥1.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥26.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.08 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥14.99, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Juneyao Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥19.55 and the most bearish at CN¥10.40 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Juneyao Airlines' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Juneyao Airlines is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Juneyao Airlines. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥14.99, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Juneyao Airlines analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Juneyao Airlines is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.