Pseudonymous prediction market trader 'Redegen' is predicting a Donald Trump presidency coupled with a popular vote win for Kamala Harris, going against his publicly shared position.
What Happened: Redegen on Sunday shared his "final forecast" for the U.S. presidential election, asserting that Polymarket is "systemically overweighting" Trump and "underweighting" Harris. Despite a prediction for Trump to win the electoral college, the trader has longed Kamala Harris, stating "Our data still points to a Trump presidency, but it's not wise to offload shares on Polymarket given the systemic overweighting."
Redegen's portfolio includes 9.2 million shares on Harris winning the popular vote and 2.6 million on her winning the presidency. The trader is now up over $1.2 million in unrealized profit on their position.
Why It Matters: Harris has recently seen a surge in online betting markets. Polymarket traders assign a 42% chance of winning the election, up from 36%, while Trump's odds have dropped from 66% to 58% over the past four days. Harris holds a 74% probability of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump's 26%. On U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi, the Vice President's chances stand at 45%.
The news comes as renowned analysts predict former President Trump to prevail on Tuesday.
假名預測市場交易員 「雷德根」 預測唐納德·特朗普將擔任總統,同時卡馬拉·賀錦麗將在民衆投票中獲勝,這與他的公開立場背道而馳。
發生了什麼:雷德根週日分享了他對美國總統大選的 「最終預測」,斷言Polymarket 「系統性地超重」 了特朗普,「減持」 了賀錦麗。儘管預測特朗普將贏得選舉團,但該交易員一直渴望卡馬拉·賀錦麗,他說:「我們的數據仍然指向特朗普當選總統,但鑑於系統性增持,在Polymarket上拋售股票並不明智。」
雷德根的投資組合包括賀錦麗贏得民衆投票的920萬股股票和她贏得總統職位的260萬股股票。該交易者的頭寸現在的未實現利潤已超過120萬美元。
另請閱讀:賀錦麗獲得866家風險投資公司的支持,資產爲2760億美元
爲何重要:賀錦麗最近看到在線博彩市場激增。Polymarket交易員認爲贏得大選的機會爲42%,高於36%,而特朗普的幾率在過去四天中從66%下降到58%。賀錦麗贏得民衆投票的概率爲74%,而特朗普的概率爲26%。在美國的預測市場Kalshi上,副總統的幾率爲45%。
該消息發佈之際,著名分析師預測前總統特朗普將在週二獲勝。