Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call
Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call
The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.Donald Trump has regained his advantage over Kamala Harris in online prediction markets on the final day before the election, but FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver aren't so sure.
特朗普概念在選舉前最後一天恢復了對賀錦麗的優勢，但FiveThirtyEight和Nate Silver並不那麼確定。
What Happened: Harris moved ahead of Trump on the Kalshi betting market over the weekend, but as of Monday afternoon, Kalshi wagerers are giving Trump a 54% chance of victory, expecting Trump to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris carrying Michigan and Wisconsin. But Kalshi betters also say there is a 75% chance that Harris will win the national popular vote.
在Kalshi賭博市場上，賀錦麗在週末超過了特朗普，但截至週一下午，Kalshi投注者認爲特朗普獲勝的幾率爲54％，預計特朗普將贏得亞利桑那州、喬治亞州、內華達州、北卡羅來納州和賓夕法尼亞州的勝利，而賀錦麗將贏得密歇根州和威斯康星州。但Kalshi的賭徒也表示，有75％的幾率賀錦麗將贏得全國的普選。
On Polymarket, Trump is seen with a 58% chance of victory. Only PredictIt is anticipating a Harris victory, with her 54% chance among its users unchanged since Sunday. Across the prediction sites, Nevada and Pennsylvania are expected to be the closest states, with Trump expected to carry Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and Harris expected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.
在Polymarket上，特朗普有58％的獲勝幾率。只有PredictIt預測賀錦麗將獲勝，在其用戶中，自週日以來，她54％的幾率未改變。在各預測網站中，內華達州和賓夕法尼亞州預計將是最懸殊的州，特朗普預計將贏得亞利桑那州、喬治亞州和北卡羅來納州，而賀錦麗預計將贏得密歇根州和威斯康星州。
The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.
選舉賭注網站，作爲各賭博市場的綜合體，顯示特朗普獲勝的幾率爲54.8％，比周日的51.6％有所增加。
Also Read: 2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races
還閱讀：2024年選舉賭注：國會、總統競選中潛在的全勝、分裂結果
The somewhat comfortable odds for Trump on Kalshi and Polymarket, and for Harris on PredictIt, are not reflected in the latest data projections. FiveThirtyEight's latest data-driven simulations show Trump winning 51.8% of the tests, to 48.0% for Harris. Silver, in his Silver Bullet newsletter, is even less certain, giving Trump a 50.2% chance of victory to Harris' 49.2%.
Kalshi和Polymarket對特朗普的賠率相對較高，PredictIt對賀錦麗的賠率也沒有反映在最新數據預測中。根據FiveThirtyEight的最新數據模擬顯示，特朗普獲勝的概率爲51.8％，賀錦麗爲48.0％。Silver在他的Silver Bullet新聞簡報中則更不確定，給特朗普獲勝的機會爲50.2％，賀錦麗爲49.2％。
Why It Matters: Prediction markets that have generally favored Donald Trump moved away from him over the weekend, but now are shifting back, though not as strongly. This indicates late shifts in momentum in an election that is expected to be decided by the narrowest of margins.
爲什麼重要：通常支持特朗普的預測市場在週末轉向別處，但現在又開始回歸，儘管回歸不那麼強烈。這表明在即將決定最細微差距的選舉中，出現晚期動能的轉變。
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, relying on polling numbers and other data gleaned from trends and past campaigns, are essentially calling the race a toss-up.
FiveThirtyEight和Nate Silver根據民調數據和從趨勢和過往競選中獲取的其他數據，實質上把這場競選稱爲一場膠着戰。
The presidential race remains too close to call, and may continue to be so long into Election Night.
總統競選的局勢仍然難以預測，可能會持續到開多選舉之夜。
