Kamala Harris Backed By Polymarket's Top 3 All-Time Traders, But Two Of Them Have Hedged Their Bets
Kamala Harris Backed By Polymarket's Top 3 All-Time Traders, But Two Of Them Have Hedged Their Bets
With election day underway, prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are showing divergent odds for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as major politics traders have placed their bets on the Vice President.
隨着選舉日的到來,預測市場Polymarket和Kalshi顯示出卡馬拉·賀錦麗和唐納德·特朗普的賠率不同,因爲主要政治交易員都將賭注押在了副總統身上。
What Happened: Kamala Harris's odds of winning the presidency stand at 41% on Kalshi, compared to 38.4% on Polymarket at the time of writing. The spread between the two platforms was as big as 6% in the early morning U.S. Eastern time. Kalshi has a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list election-related trading contracts.
發生了什麼:卡爾希的賀錦麗贏得總統職位的幾率爲41%,而在撰寫本文時,Polymarket的這一比例爲38.4%。在美國東部時間清晨,兩個平台之間的價差高達6%。Kalshi擁有商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的許可,可以上市與選舉相關的交易合約。
The top three traders on Polymarket have all sided with the Vice President to win the election.
Polymarket上排名前三的交易員都支持副總裁,以贏得選舉。
Veteran trader Domer has wagered $224,344 on Harris winning the electoral college, $147,766 on a Democrat taking both the popular vote and Presidency and $164,884 on a Democrat winning the state of Pennsylvania. In a post on X, the all-time leading trader on the platform cited his estimate of Kamala Harris's chances to win the election around 55-60%.
The second trader on Polymarket's all-time ranking, Rueben, bet over $300,000 on the Vice President to win the popular vote, the electoral college and the Democratic Party to win the Presidency and the House but lose control of the Senate. However, the trader also has a roughly $50,000 stake on the GOP to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote., with a total profit of $1.6 million recorded in his portfolio.
Third-placed trader YatSen bet $172,810 on a Democratic win in the popular vote and presidency, and $57,622 on Harris. The trader also has over $120,000 staked on an electoral college/popular vote split where Trump wins the presidency.
資深交易員多默下注224,344美元押注賀錦麗贏得選舉團,147,766美元押注民主黨人同時獲得民衆投票和總統,164,884美元押注民主黨人贏得賓夕法尼亞州。在X上的一篇文章中,該平台上的歷史領先交易員引用了他對卡馬拉·賀錦麗贏得大選的機會約爲55-60%的估計。
Polymarket歷史排名上的第二位交易員魯本押注超過30萬美元,押注副總統將贏得民衆投票,選舉團和民主黨贏得總統和衆議院但失去對參議院的控制權。但是,該交易員還持有共和黨約5萬美元的股份,以贏得選舉團,但輸掉了民衆投票。,他的投資組合中記錄的總利潤爲160萬美元。
排名第三的交易員YatSen押注民主黨在民衆投票和總統大選中獲勝爲172,810美元,押注賀錦麗57,622美元。該交易員還將超過12萬美元的賭注押在特朗普贏得總統大選的選舉團/民衆投票中。
What's Next: The influence of prediction markets is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
下一步是什麼:預計將在11月19日舉行的Benzinga即將舉行的數字資產未來活動中全面探討預測市場的影響。