ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's (SZSE:002041) Earnings Quality Is Low
ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's (SZSE:002041) Earnings Quality Is Low
Shareholders didn't appear too concerned by ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd's (SZSE:002041) weak earnings. We did some analysis and found some concerning details beneath the statutory profit number.
股東對於山東登海種業股份有限公司(SZSE:002041)的疲弱收益似乎並不太擔心。我們進行了一些分析,發現了一些令人關注的細節藏在這則法定利潤數字背後。
Examining Cashflow Against ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's Earnings
對比山東登海種業股份有限公司的現金流與盈利情況
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
用於衡量公司如何將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。應計比率從給定期間的自由現金流中減去利潤,然後將結果除以公司在那段時間內的平均營運資產。這個比率告訴我們,公司利潤中有多少不受自由現金流支持。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,當一家公司的應計項目比率爲負時,實際上是一件好事,但如果其應計項目比率爲正,則是一件壞事。這並不意味着我們應該擔心應計項目比率爲正,但值得注意的是,當應計項目比率相當高時,可能會導致利潤或利潤增長降低。
For the year to September 2024, ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had an accrual ratio of 0.49. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥131m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥219.0m. We saw that FCF was CN¥88m a year ago though, so ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
截至2024年9月的年度,山東登海種業股份有限公司的計提比率爲0.49。一般來說,這對未來的盈利能力不利。事實上,在這段時期內公司根本沒有產生任何自由現金流。過去一年,與前述的盈利人民幣21900萬元相反,它實際上有着13100萬元的負面自由現金流。然而,一年前我們看到自由現金流爲8800萬元,所以山東登海種業股份有限公司至少過去有能力產生正面自由現金流。話雖如此,事情還有待了解。計提比率部分反映了異常項目對法定利潤的影響。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常規項目如何影響利潤?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥69m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
公司去年非凡項目帶來6,900萬人民幣的利潤,這可能在一定程度上解釋了爲什麼其應計比率如此薄弱。我們不能否認,利潤增加通常讓我們感到樂觀,但我們更希望利潤能夠持續。當我們對成千上萬家上市公司的數據進行分析時,我們發現在某一年由於非凡項目的提振往往不會在下一年重複出現。畢竟,這正是會計術語所暗示的。與2024年9月利潤相比,登海種業從非凡項目獲得了相當大的貢獻。因此,我們可以推斷非凡項目使其法定利潤明顯強於其本來的水平。
Our Take On ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's Profit Performance
我們對登海種業的利潤表現看法
ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. If you want to do dive deeper into ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd.
登海種業的應計比率較低,但其利潤確實受益於非凡項目的提振。基於上述所有原因,我們認爲,乍一看,登海種業的法定利潤可能被認爲是低質量的,因爲它們可能給投資者過於樂觀的印象。如果您想更深入地了解登海種業,您還應該研究目前它面臨的風險。例如,我們發現了1個警告信號,您應該仔細審視,以更好地了解登海種業的全貌。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
在本文中,我們展示了影響利潤數字的各種因素,並謹慎對待。但是,還有很多其他方法可以了解公司的情況。有些人認爲高回報股本回報率是一家優質企業的好跡象。雖然可能需要您自己進行一些研究,但您可能會發現此免費收藏的公司以高股本回報率爲榮,或此持有重要內部股份的股票清單可能會有所幫助。
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