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Republican Clean Sweep A Bullish Scenario For S&P 500: Franklin Templeton

Republican Clean Sweep A Bullish Scenario For S&P 500: Franklin Templeton

共和黨全面勝利:富蘭克林泰普利頓看好標普500指數
Business Today ·  11/06 05:42
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"Historically, a Republican clean sweep has been the most bullish scenario for S&P500 average returns, generating average of 16% returns during the administration says Christy Tan, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute.

從歷史數據來看,共和黨全面勝選通常是標普500指數平均回報率最高的情形,這種情況下的投資策略師克里斯蒂·譚表示,通常會在政府任期內實現平均16%的回報率,她是富蘭克林坦普頓研究所的投資策略師。

For equities, she said the biggest winners will be sectors and industries welcoming a more business-friendly regulatory environment, including fossil fuel energy companies, financial services and smaller capitalisation companies. Fears of caps on prescription drug prices will recede, boosting the fortunes of the pharma sector.

對於股票市場,她表示,最大贏家將是歡迎更加友好的商業監管環境的行業和公司,包括化石燃料能源公司、金融服務行業和較小市值的公司。人們擔心的藥品價格上限將逐漸消退,從而提振製藥行業的前景。

Given the results, the extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts is somewhat assured. It is probable that the statutory and effective corporate tax rates will be lowered (the former to perhaps 15%) and that sweeping changes to business regulation will follow. What is less certain is whether tariffs will be increased on the scale and scope matching Trump's campaign rhetoric. That outcome will likely be determined on a case-by-case via bargaining among trading partners and with considerable input from the US business community.

鑑於選擇結果,2017年特朗普稅收減免措施的延長在一定程度上可以得到保證。有可能將法定企業稅率和有效稅率降低(前者可能降至15%),並將隨之出臺關於商業監管的全面變革。較不確定的是是否會按照特朗普競選中的承諾提高關稅規模和範圍。這一結果可能會通過與貿易伙伴之間的談判以及在很大程度上聽取美國商界的意見來做出決定,需要逐案來決定。

Looking at fixed income, Christy says there are realistic expectations and concerns over the increase in long-term debt supply to finance short-term fiscal spending which will likely lead to higher yields in the long end of the curve.

在固定收益方面,克里斯蒂表示,人們對長期債務供應的增加以資助短期財政支出存在現實的預期和擔憂,這很可能會導致曲線長端的收益率上升。

However, for investors looking at the next 6-12 months, Franklin said it can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle and the house expects the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification. According to Franklin's investment teams they are expecting 10Y yield to fall to 3.75% and Fed funds rate to fall to 3.6% by the end of 2025.

然而,對於在未來6-12個月內尋找投資機會的投資者來說,富蘭克林表示,可以肯定的是聯儲局將維持其寬鬆政策,該機構預計整體環境將有利於固定收益投資以實現投資組合多元化。根據富蘭克林的投資團隊,他們預計10年期美國國債收益率將在2025年底降至3.75%,聯邦基金利率將降至3.6%。

Analysis of subsequent returns following past Fed rate cuts associated with soft landings shows that short-to-intermediate Treasury bonds have, on average, performed better than long-duration Treasuries. Moreover, they have exhibited smaller dispersion in returns, consistently generating positive performance one year after the Fed cuts. In general, the shorter end of the curve is more sensitive to Fed policy moves.

對過去聯儲局減息後出現軟着陸的相應回報進行分析顯示,短期至中長期國債的平均表現優於長期國債。此外,它們的回報差異較小,始終在聯儲局減息後一年內產生正收益。一般來說,曲線短端對聯儲局政策調整更加敏感。

The US dollar is advancing on foreign exchange markets, boosted by the combination of higher US bond yields and the anticipation of strong inflows into US public and private equity markets.

美元在匯率期貨市場上不斷攀升,受益於美國債券收益率上升和對美國公共和私人股權市場強勁資金流入的預期。

With most signs pointing to a significant Republican victory, ongoing stock, bond, and currency market moves will be reinforced. At some point, however, rising bond yields may cap equity market gains.

隨着大部分跡象都指向一場重要的共和黨勝利,不斷進行的股票、債券和貨幣市場走勢將會得到強化。然而,隨着債券收益率的上升,股票市場的收益可能會受到限制。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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