We Think Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (SZSE:002471) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (SZSE:002471) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002471) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
禾倫•巴菲特曾經說過,「波動性與風險遠非同義詞」。當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看看其債務的使用情況,因爲債務超載可能會導致破產。我們可以看到,中超控股有限公司(SZSE:002471)在業務中確實使用了債務。但這個債務會讓股東擔憂嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果一家企業無法償還債權人的債務,那麼它將存在於債權人的掌控之中。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所獲。然而,更常見的(但仍然昂貴)情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東權益,以便控制債務。當然,很多公司使用債務來資助增長,沒有任何負面後果。在考慮一家公司的債務水平時的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding Carry?
中超控股承擔了多少債務?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding had CN¥1.98b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it does have CN¥811.9m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥1.16b.
下面的圖表顯示,江蘇中超控股有限公司於2024年9月有19.8億人民幣的債務;與前一年相比大致相同。然而,它也有81190萬人民幣的現金用以抵消,導致淨債務約爲11.6億人民幣。
A Look At Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's Liabilities
中超控股的負債情況一覽
The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding had liabilities of CN¥3.97b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥83.2m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥811.9m and CN¥2.55b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥692.3m.
最新資產負債表數據顯示,中超控股一年內到期的負債爲人民幣39.7億,之後到期的負債爲人民幣8320萬。另一方面,公司現金爲人民幣81190萬,應收賬款一年內到期爲人民幣25.5億。因此,其負債比現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和多出人民幣69230萬。
Since publicly traded Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding shares are worth a total of CN¥3.87b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
由於江蘇中超控股的上市股份總值爲人民幣38.7億,這種程度的負債似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。然而,我們認爲值得關注其資產負債表的強度,因爲這可能隨着時間推移而變化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (11.3), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.77 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. One redeeming factor for Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of CN¥50m, over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
江蘇中超控股股東面臨的雙重打擊是高淨債務與EBITDA比例(11.3),以及相當薄弱的利息償付能力,因爲EBIT僅爲利息支出的0.77倍。這裏的債務負擔相當重。中超控股的一個拯救之處是,將去年的EBIT虧損轉化爲過去12個月的5000萬人民幣收益。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是關注的重點領域。然而,決定資產負債表未來表現的是中超控股的盈利情況。所以,如果您渴望了解更多關於其盈利的信息,不妨查看其長期盈利趨勢圖。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
最後,一家公司只能用現金而非會計利潤償還債務。因此,值得檢查利息和稅前盈利(EBIT)有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去一年裏,江蘇中超控股的自由現金流實際比EBIT更多。對於保持與貸款人良好關係來說,沒有什麼比現金流入更好的了。
Our View
我們的觀點
We weren't impressed with Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's net debt to EBITDA, and its interest cover made us cautious. But like a ballerina ending on a perfect pirouette, it has not trouble converting EBIT to free cash flow. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Zhongchao Holding (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
我們對中超控股的淨債務與EBITDA比率並不滿意,其利潤保障讓我們謹慎。但就像芭蕾舞者以完美的轉身結束一樣,它毫無困擾地將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流。當我們考慮以上提到的所有因素時,我們確實對中超控股的債務使用感到有些謹慎。雖然債務在提高潛在回報方面有其優勢,但我們認爲股東們應該考慮債務水平可能會使股票更加風險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時要重點關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表範圍的風險。例如,我們已經識別出中超控股的2個警告信號(其中1個不容忽視),您應該注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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