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Is China Wuyi (SZSE:000797) A Risky Investment?

Is China Wuyi (SZSE:000797) A Risky Investment?

中國五洲(SZSE:000797)是一個風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  11/07 14:02

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that China Wuyi Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000797) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

一些人說,作爲投資者,最好的方式是將波動性而不是債務視爲風險,但禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過,「波動性遠非風險的代名詞。」 所以顯而易見,當您考慮任何特定股票的風險時,需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務可能會拖垮一家公司。我們可以看到中國五洲股份有限公司(SZSE:000797)在業務中使用了債務。但這筆債務是否讓股東擔憂?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業成長的一種工具,但如果一家企業無法償還貸款,那麼它就要依賴債權人的幫助。如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東們可能一無所有。雖然這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的公司因爲債權人迫使他們以低價增資而永久稀釋股東利益。然而,與稀釋相比,債務可以成爲對需要資本以高回報率投資於增長的企業非常有效的工具。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,我們首先看現金和債務的總體情況。

What Is China Wuyi's Net Debt?

中國五洲的淨債務是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, China Wuyi had CN¥9.15b of debt, up from CN¥8.70b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥2.91b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥6.24b.

正如您所看到的,截至2024年9月底,中國五洲的債務爲91.5億人民幣,比一年前的87億人民幣增加。點擊圖片以獲取更多詳細信息。然而,由於該公司擁有29.1億人民幣的現金儲備,因此其淨債務較少,約爲62.4億人民幣。

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SZSE:000797 Debt to Equity History November 7th 2024
SZSE:000797資產負債歷史數據 2024年11月7日

How Healthy Is China Wuyi's Balance Sheet?

中國武夷的資產負債表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that China Wuyi had liabilities of CN¥12.9b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥4.84b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥2.91b in cash and CN¥2.26b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥12.6b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,中國武夷有129億人民幣的短期負債,以及48.4億人民幣的長期負債。相比之下,公司有29.1億人民幣的現金和22.6億人民幣的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,公司的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的組合多出126億人民幣。

This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥5.32b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, China Wuyi would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

這一赤字給這家價值53.2億人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一座高聳在凡人之上的巨人。因此,我們會密切關注其資產負債表,毫無疑問。在一天結束時,如果其債權人要求償還債務,中國武夷可能需要一次重大資本重組。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。

With net debt to EBITDA of 4.3 China Wuyi has a fairly noticeable amount of debt. But the high interest coverage of 9.3 suggests it can easily service that debt. Importantly, China Wuyi grew its EBIT by 63% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is China Wuyi's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

中國武夷的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率達到4.3,表明公司有相當可觀的債務。但9.3的高利息覆蓋率表明公司可以輕鬆償還債務。重要的是,中國武夷在過去十二個月內將其EBIT增長了63%,這種增長將使其更容易應對債務。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中最多了解債務。但正是中國武夷的盈利將影響資產負債表未來的情況。因此,如果您渴望了解更多關於其盈利的信息,不妨查看該公司長期盈利趨勢的圖表。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, China Wuyi recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。因此,我們明顯需要了解EBIT是否帶來相應的自由現金流。在最近的三年中,中國武夷的自由現金流價值相當於其EBIT的68%,這在正常範圍內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅收。這筆冷硬現金意味着公司可以在需要時減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

China Wuyi's level of total liabilities and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But its EBIT growth rate tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that China Wuyi is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Wuyi that you should be aware of before investing here.

中國五洲的總負債和淨債務與EBITDA的比率在我們看來確實對其造成了負面影響。但是其EBIT增長率講述了一個完全不同的故事,並表明了一些韌性。綜合考慮以上所有方面,我們認爲中國五洲由於其債務而在一定程度上是一項風險投資。這並不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事情。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表之內 - 遠非如此。例如,我們發現了關於中國五洲的2個警示信號,你在投資之前應該注意。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

每天結束時,通常更好地關注那些沒有淨債務的公司。您可以查看我們特別名單上的這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長記錄)。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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