While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Singapore Post Limited (SGX:S08) share price has gained 20% in the last three months. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 46%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

Since Singapore Post has shed S$90m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Singapore Post's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 13% each year. Notably, the share price has fallen at 11% per year, fairly close to the change in the EPS. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Singapore Post has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Singapore Post the TSR over the last 5 years was -40%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Singapore Post shareholders gained a total return of 10% during the year. But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 7% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Singapore Post better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Singapore Post you should be aware of.

We will like Singapore Post better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.