Despite an already strong run, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:VAC) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 30% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 25% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may still consider Marriott Vacations Worldwide as an attractive investment with its 16.6x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Marriott Vacations Worldwide's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Marriott Vacations Worldwide would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 30%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 15% during the coming year according to the nine analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15%, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it odd that Marriott Vacations Worldwide is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock might have been given a solid boost, but its P/E certainly hasn't reached any great heights. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Marriott Vacations Worldwide's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Marriott Vacations Worldwide has 4 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Marriott Vacations Worldwide, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.