Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Iceberg Research Posts On X "We Are Short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The Change in the US Administration Is the Obvious Threat but Problems Run Deeper, in Particular the Competitiveness of Technology. A Lot of Room to Fall Further."
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.We are short Gevo Inc ($GEVO). The change in the US administration is the obvious threat but problems run deeper, in particular the competitiveness of technology. A lot of room to fall further.
我們做空 Gevo Inc ($GEVO)。美國政府的更迭是顯而易見的威脅，但問題更深，尤其是技術的競爭力。還有很大的下跌空間。
In its last days, the Biden-driven Department of Energy has granted conditional approval for a $1.46b loan to Gevo, aimed at building a plant to produce alcohol-to-jet ("ATJ") aviation fuel.
在過去的幾天裏，拜登推動的能源部有條件地批准了向Gevo提供14.6億美元的貸款，旨在建造一座生產酒精轉噴氣式飛機（「ATJ」）航空燃料的工廠。
Under a Trump-led administration, who called the IRA a "Green New Scam", Gevo's project is one of the most vulnerable DOE conditional approvals. The massive loan is subject to multiple conditions before approval, placing control in the hands of the DOE's new leadership.
在特朗普領導的政府將IRA稱爲 「綠色新騙局」 的領導下，Gevo的項目是美國能源部最脆弱的有條件批准項目之一。這筆巨額貸款在批准之前需要滿足多個條件，這使控制權掌握在了美國能源部的新領導層手中。
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), whether HEFA or ATJ, are structurally more expensive than traditional jet fuel, and rely heavily on tax credits e.g. IRA and RFS. Generous IRA credits are now threatened and in any case, they expire in 2027.
可持續航空燃料（SAF），無論是HEFA還是ATJ，在結構上都比傳統的噴氣燃料更昂貴，並且嚴重依賴稅收抵免，例如IRA和RFS。慷慨的IRA積分現在受到威脅，無論如何，它們將在2027年到期。
ATJ (Gevo's type) is also more expensive than HEFA, the most common type of SAF (see above). Bulls argue HEFA will face future feedstock supply constraints (e.g. used oil), hence the need for ATJ.
ATJ（Gevo的類型）也比HEFA更昂貴，HEFA是最常見的SAF類型（見上文）。多頭認爲，HEFA將面臨未來的原料供應限制（例如廢油），因此需要ATJ。
The EU has mandated 6% SAF use by 2030, but even when the rule is implemented, current and incoming HEFA production will more than cover demand.
歐盟已要求到2030年使用6％的SAF，但即使該規定得以實施，當前和即將到來的HEFA產量也將足以滿足需求。
In the US, the DOE believes that HEFA won't cover SAF needs in 2030. But the DOE has assumed SAF would account for 12% (3b gal) of all fuel usage (25b gal) even though SAF adoption will be voluntary in the US, while Europe's 6% is mandatory.
在美國，美國能源部認爲，到2030年，HEFA將無法滿足SAF的需求。但美國能源部認爲，儘管美國將自願採用SAF，但SAF將佔所有燃料使用量（250加侖）的12％（30加侖），而歐洲的6％是強制性的。
Hard to believe that US airlines would voluntarily use twice more SAF than their European peers while airline margins are notoriously thin. Assuming 6% usage, in line with the EU in 2030, we found that expected US HEFA capacity (1.7b) will cover SAF needs (1.5b gal).
很難相信美國航空公司會自願使用比歐洲同行多兩倍的SAF，而航空公司的利潤率卻很低。假設使用量爲6％，與歐盟的2030年持平，我們發現預期的美國HEFA產能（17億美元）將滿足SAF需求（15加侖）。
Worse, the electrification of vehicles will reduce the usage of renewable diesel, which shares the same feedstock as HEFA. This would release HEFA supply in favour of SAF. Another issue is that the EU bans crop-based biofuels like corn. Corn is Gevo's primary feedstock.
更糟糕的是，汽車的電氣化將減少可再生柴油的使用，而可再生柴油的原料與HEFA相同。這將釋放HEFA的供應，有利於SAF。另一個問題是歐盟禁止玉米等作物類生物燃料。玉米是 Gevo 的主要原料。
The track record of operators is crucial for a project as large as Gevo's ATJ plant. Gevo is known to have a history of under-delivering on promises. In 2019 for example, management unveiled plans to achieve $63-$77m of revenue in 2021. Actual revenue for the year was $0.5m.
對於像Gevo的ATJ工廠這樣龐大的項目，運營商的往績記錄至關重要。衆所周知，Gevo有兌現承諾不足的歷史。例如，在2019年，管理層公佈了在2021年實現6300萬至7700萬美元收入的計劃。該年度的實際收入爲50萬美元。
Since 2013, the company has burnt through $678m of cash, and raised $887m in common equity. Share count has grown about 16x since 2019. Still, top managers received very attractive compensation packages despite this poor performance.
自2013年以來，該公司已經消耗了6.78億美元的現金，並籌集了887億美元的普通股。自2019年以來，股票數量增長了約16倍。儘管表現不佳，但高層管理人員還是獲得了非常有吸引力的薪酬待遇。
We believe the shifting political landscape and the challenging economics of ATJ make Gevo's renewable project highly speculative and prone to failure.
我們認爲，不斷變化的政治格局和富有挑戰性的經濟使Gevo的可再生能源項目極具投機性，容易失敗。
