Boltek Holdings Limited (HKG:8601) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 30% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 7.8% isn't as attractive.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Boltek Holdings' P/E ratio of 10.2x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 10x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Boltek Holdings certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Boltek Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 46%. EPS has also lifted 8.1% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that Boltek Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Boltek Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Boltek Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Boltek Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Boltek Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.