Roshow Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002617) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 13% is also fairly reasonable.
Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Roshow Technology is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 4.2x, considering almost half the companies in China's Electrical industry have P/S ratios below 2.5x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
What Does Roshow Technology's Recent Performance Look Like?
Revenue has risen firmly for Roshow Technology recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Roshow Technology will help you shine a light on its historical performance.
Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Roshow Technology?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Roshow Technology would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 22% gain to the company's top line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 3.9% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Roshow Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Roshow Technology shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Roshow Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Roshow Technology with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
If you're unsure about the strength of Roshow Technology's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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