Westports 3Q24 core net profit of RM228m was 12% higher qoq (+17% yoy) due to stronger operating performance and lower amortisation expense of the port infrastructure and concession assets given the extension of the port concession to 2070F (2054F previously) effective 1 Sep 2024.
Lower amortisation led to lower qoq port operating costs in 3Q24 but Westports also enjoyed reduced electricity tariffs and fuel costs as the market price of diesel fell (diesel is used by its port tractors and rubber-tyre gantry cranes). This helped lift port EBIT by 11% qoq since overall container port revenue in 3Q24 actually did not see significant uplift. Container port revenue rose just 1.2% qoq in 3Q24 as a sharp 5% qoq rise in gateway volumes was partially offset by a 5.2% qoq drop in transhipment (t/s) volumes as Zim (not rated, US$24.77) has not been permitted to call on ports in Malaysia since Dec
CGS said fortunately, Value Added Services (VAS) revenues rose qoq due to the yard congestion seen in 2Q24 and which extended into 3Q24; this lifted unit container revenue by 2% qoq, also assisted by the rising mix of gateway volumes. In summary, Westports delivered another good quarter due to the resilience of its container port business, which continues to benefit from the relocation of Chinese factories to the Klang Valley as a means of diversifying risk exposure to current and potential future US tariffs on Chinese exports.
Two major events could have implications for Westports next year
Westports guided for muted growth for 2025F container volumes; it is hoping for a small yoy growth in t/s volumes with the Zim effect moving into the background (we pencil in 2% growth, from -6% in 2024F) while gateway volumes should continue to grow (we factor in +6% yoy, from +10% in 2024F and +14% in 2023). Overall, CGS said it is expecting total container
volume to grow 3.8% in 2025F vs. +0.7% in 2024F. On the other hand, it is also assuming a normalisation in VAS revenues in 2025F as Westports's yard is currently decongesting.
A key risk is if US president-elect Trump raises tariffs on imports from China to 60% and on imports from other countries to 10-20%. The upside risk is for trade volumes to jump ahead of the higher tariffs but the longer-term implications are uncertain. Will higher tariffs on Chinese exports accelerate the 'China+1' strategy that has so far benefitted Malaysia or, in a downside risk scenario, will these tariffs crimp US buying power such that overall global trade growth is impacted negatively?
Separately, to fund th expansion of Westports, we expect the government to permit Westports to raise port tariffs next year,
although the timing and quantum have not been disclosed. We have pencilled in a 15% hike from 1 Sep 2025F and we have a Hold recommendation until the details are available.
鑑於港口特許權自2024年9月1日起延長至2070華氏度（此前爲2054華氏度），Westports24第三季度核心淨利潤爲22800萬令吉，同比增長12％（同比增長17％），這要歸因於運營業績強勁以及港口基礎設施和特許權資產的攤銷費用降低。
攤銷額減少導致24年第三季度港口運營成本降低，但隨着柴油市場價格的下跌（其港口拖拉機和橡膠輪胎龍門起重機使用柴油），Westports也降低了電費和燃料成本。這使港口息稅前利潤環比增長了11％，因爲24年第三季度集裝箱港口的整體收入實際上並未出現顯著增長。集裝箱港口收入在24年第三季度僅增長了1.2％，這是由於自12月以來一直不允許Zim（未評級，24.77美元）停靠馬來西亞港口，轉運量（t/s）同比下降5.2％，部分抵消了網關量同比增長5％
CGS表示，幸運的是，增值服務（VAS）收入環比增長，這要歸因於24年第二季度出現船廠擁堵，一直持續到24年第三季度；這也得益於網關量組合的增加，使單位集裝箱收入環比增長了2％。總而言之，由於其集裝箱港口業務的彈性，Westports又實現了良好的季度業績。中國工廠遷至巴生谷繼續受益，這是分散美國當前和未來對中國出口關稅的風險敞口的一種手段。
明年有兩起重大事件可能會對西港產生影響
Westports預計2025F集裝箱量將保持低速增長；它希望在Zim效應進入背景的情況下，t/s的銷量同比小幅增長（我們預計增長2％，高於2024財年的-6％），而網關量應繼續增長（我們考慮同比增長6％，高於2024財年的+10％和2023年的+14％）。總體而言，CGS表示，預計集裝箱總量
2025財年的銷量將增長3.8％，而2024財年的增長率爲0.7％。另一方面，它還假設增值稅收入將在2025財年恢復正常，因爲Westports的船廠目前正在緩解擁擠狀況。
一個關鍵風險是，如果美國當選總統特朗普將從中國進口的關稅提高到60％，將從其他國家進口的關稅提高到10-20％。上行風險是，在更高的關稅之前，貿易量會激增，但長期影響尚不確定。對中國出口商品徵收更高的關稅會加速迄今爲止使馬來西亞受益的 「中國+1」 戰略，還是在下行風險情景中，這些關稅是否會抑制美國的購買力，從而使全球整體貿易增長受到負面影響？
另外，爲了爲Westports的擴張提供資金，我們預計政府將允許Westports明年提高港口費率，
儘管時間和量子尚未透露。我們計劃從2025年9月1日起加息 15%，我們建議在細節出來之前暫緩加息。
