Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%
Despite the Downward Trend in Earnings at Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC) the Stock Soars 10%, Bringing Three-year Gains to 63%
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) share price is up 58% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 15% (not including dividends).
通過購買指數基金,您可以輕鬆地大致匹配市場回報。但是,如果你選擇正確的個股,你的收入可能不止於此。例如,格雷厄姆控股公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:GHC)的股價在過去三年中上漲了58%,顯然超過了約15%(不包括股息)的市場回報率。
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
在連續7天表現穩健的背景下,讓我們來看看公司的基本面在推動長期股東回報方面發揮了什麼作用。
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
不可否認,市場有時是有效的,但價格並不總是能反映潛在的業務表現。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
Over the last three years, Graham Holdings failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 20% (annualized).
在過去三年中,格雷厄姆控股未能增長每股收益,下降了20%(按年計算)。
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
這意味着市場不太可能根據收益增長來評判該公司。由於每股收益的變化似乎與股價的變化無關,因此值得一看其他指標。
Languishing at just 0.7%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 14% per year is viewed as evidence that Graham Holdings is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.
股息僅爲0.7%,我們懷疑股息是否能在支撐股價方面起到多大作用。每年14%的收入增長可能被視爲格雷厄姆控股公司增長的證據。如果公司的管理是爲了長期利益,那麼今天的股東堅持下去可能是正確的。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下圖顯示了收入和收入在一段時間內的跟蹤情況(如果你點擊圖片,你可以看到更多的細節)。
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Graham Holdings stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。話雖如此,大多數人認爲收益和收入增長趨勢是更有意義的業務指南。如果您正在考慮買入或賣出格雷厄姆控股的股票,則應查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
What About Dividends?
那股息呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Graham Holdings, it has a TSR of 63% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報率之間的差異。儘管股價回報率僅反映股價的變化,但股東總回報率包括股息的價值(假設已進行再投資)以及任何折扣融資或分拆的收益。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。就格雷厄姆控股而言,在過去三年中,其股東回報率爲63%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。因此,公司支付的股息提高了股東的總回報率。
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
We're pleased to report that Graham Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 50% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Graham Holdings (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
我們很高興地向大家報告,格雷厄姆控股的股東在一年內獲得了50%的總股東回報率。這確實包括股息。這比五年來9%的年化回報率要好,這意味着該公司最近的表現更好。在最好的情況下,這可能暗示着一些真正的業務勢頭,這意味着現在可能是深入研究的好時機。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,投資風險的幽靈無處不在。我們已經向Graham Holdings發現了兩個警告信號(至少有一個令人擔憂),了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
Graham Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
格雷厄姆控股公司並不是內部人士唯一買入的股票。對於那些喜歡尋找知名度較低的公司的人來說,這份最近有內幕收購的成長型公司的免費清單可能只是入場券。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報率。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎?直接聯繫我們。或者,發送電子郵件給編輯組(網址爲)simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。