The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$2.8b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.38 fell short of forecasts by 32%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mosaic's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$11.7b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 77% to US$2.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$32.88. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mosaic at US$44.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$26.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Mosaic's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mosaic is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mosaic's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$32.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mosaic analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Mosaic , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.