Berjaya May See Permanent Erosion In Starbucks Brand Equity
Berjaya May See Permanent Erosion In Starbucks Brand Equity
Berjaya Food's sales may continue to be depressed until geopolitical tensions ease says Maybank Investment Bank after the group posted a rather dismal earnings report.
馬來亞銀行投資銀行表示，在該集團發佈較差的盈利報告後， berjaya Food的銷售可能會持續低迷，直到地緣政治緊張局勢緩解。
Thee broking house added that the growing popularity in other coffee chains may also signal a permanent erosion in Berjaya Starbucks' brand equity. The house projected FY25E net loss is lifted to -MYR65m and FY26E-FY27E earnings estimates are lowered by 13%-15%. Maintain SELL with a lower TP of MYR0.25 (-5sen) based on an unchanged 1.3x CY25E PBV (-1SD to mean).
該券商還指出，其他咖啡連鎖店日益增長的受歡迎程度可能也意味着berjaya星巴克的品牌價值將永遠受到侵蝕。該券商預測2025財年的淨虧損將增至-6500萬馬幣，2026財年至2027財年的盈利預計下調13%-15%。維持賣出評級，目標價下調至0.25馬幣（-5仙），基於2025財年1.3倍的賬面價值比率（較平均值下調1個標準差）。
1QFY25 core losses widened QoQ
BFD's 1QFY25 core net loss of MYR34m (1QFY24 core net profit: MYR20m, 4QFY24 core net loss: MYR2m) surpassed the house/consensus FY25E earnings estimates of -MYR4m/+MYR7m, respectively. Ongoing store boycott was the main cause of the earnings underperformance.
2025財年第一季度的核心虧損環比擴大。
BFD在2025財年第一季度的核心淨虧損爲3400萬馬幣（2024財年第一季度核心淨利潤：2000萬馬幣，2024財年第四季度核心淨虧損：200萬馬幣），超過了該券商/共識的2025財年盈利預期，分別爲-400萬馬幣/+700萬馬幣。持續的商店抵制是盈利表現不佳的主要原因。
Operating challenges persists
The group has temporarily closed 12% of its BStarbucks stores (50 out of 408 stores) in 1QFY25, as compared to c.6% of its total store count in 4QFY24. This resulted in a -5% QoQ decline in 1QFY25's group revenue. Loss before tax of MYR32m in 1QFY25 compared to MYR6m in 4QFY24 (before sizeable positive one-offs) widened despite BFD's vigilant cost management initiatives involving lower staff count per store and rental expenses.
運營挑戰仍然存在。
該集團在2025財年第一季度暫時關閉了12%的B星巴克門店（408家門店中的50家），相比於2024財年第四季度約6%的總門店數量。這導致2025財年第一季度的集團營業收入環比下降5%。2025財年第一季度的稅前虧損爲3200萬馬幣，較2024財年第四季度的600萬馬幣（在較大積極一次性收益之前）繼續擴大，儘管BFD實施了提高成本管理效率的措施，包括每家門店降低員工數量和租金支出。
Revising earnings estimates down
BFD continues to face significant business challenges. Management's efforts have diverted to growing its Paris Baguette (10 stores as at end1QFY25), and BStarbucks stores outside of Malaysia. However, given that group earnings remain highly dependent on domestic BStarbucks' performance, meaningful earnings diversification will be slow. Moreover, heightened competition within the industry also adds another roadblock to BFD's earnings recovery. Hence, we raise our FY25E loss estimate to – MYR65m (vs. -MYR4m previously), and FY26E/FY27E earnings estimates are lowered by -15%/-13%.
下調盈利預期。
BFD繼續面臨重大業務挑戰。管理層的努力轉向了擴展其巴黎麪包店（截至FY25第一季度開設了10家）和馬來西亞以外的星巴克店。然而，鑑於集團的收益仍高度依賴於國內星巴克的表現，業績的有效多元化將會緩慢。此外，行業內競爭加劇也給BFD的收益恢復增加了另一個障礙。因此，我們將FY25E的虧損預估上調至-6500萬馬幣（之前爲-400萬馬幣），FY26E/FY27E的收益預估下調了-15%/-13%。
