Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenue crushed expectations at US$440m, beating expectations by 22%. Natera reported a statutory loss of US$0.26 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Natera's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$1.79b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 20% to US$1.30. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.71b and US$1.21 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target rose 18% to US$158, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Natera analyst has a price target of US$185 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$37.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Natera's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Natera is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Natera. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Natera analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Natera .

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