It's been a mediocre week for FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 16% to US$0.80 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in at US$29m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.11 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following last week's earnings report, FiscalNote Holdings' four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$124.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 89% to US$0.37 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$129.7m and losses of US$0.35 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in to its losses per share forecasts.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$3.31, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic FiscalNote Holdings analyst has a price target of US$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.75. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. It's pretty clear that FiscalNote Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on FiscalNote Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for FiscalNote Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for FiscalNote Holdings (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.