If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Looking at Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), it does have a high ROCE right now, but lets see how returns are trending.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Lockheed Martin:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.24 = US$9.0b ÷ (US$56b - US$18b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, Lockheed Martin has an ROCE of 24%. In absolute terms that's a great return and it's even better than the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 9.7%.

In the above chart we have measured Lockheed Martin's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Lockheed Martin .

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There hasn't been much to report for Lockheed Martin's returns and its level of capital employed because both metrics have been steady for the past five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. Although current returns are high, we'd need more evidence of underlying growth for it to look like a multi-bagger going forward. This probably explains why Lockheed Martin is paying out 46% of its income to shareholders in the form of dividends. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.

Our Take On Lockheed Martin's ROCE

Although is allocating it's capital efficiently to generate impressive returns, it isn't compounding its base of capital, which is what we'd see from a multi-bagger. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 58% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing Lockheed Martin that you might find interesting.

If you'd like to see other companies earning high returns, check out our free list of companies earning high returns with solid balance sheets here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.