A week ago, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TARS) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Tarsus Pharmaceuticals outperformed estimates, with revenues of US$48m beating estimates by 11%. Statutory losses were US$0.61, 33% smaller thanthe analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' seven analysts is for revenues of US$305.5m in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 136% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 50% to US$1.75. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$291.2m and US$1.66 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

It will come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target rose 10% to US$65.33, with the analysts clearly more interested in growing revenue, even as losses intensify. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tarsus Pharmaceuticals at US$84.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$41.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 99% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 42% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Tarsus Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Tarsus Pharmaceuticals , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.