Is Textron (NYSE:TXT) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Textron (NYSE:TXT) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Textron Inc. (NYSE:TXT) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。與許多其他公司一樣,德事隆公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:TXT)也使用債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。資本主義的組成部分是 「創造性破壞」 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是同時考慮其現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Textron Carry?
德事隆揹負了多少債務?
As you can see below, Textron had US$3.49b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$1.29b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.20b.
如下所示,截至2024年9月,德事隆有34.9億美元的債務,與前一年大致相同。您可以單擊圖表以獲取更多詳細信息。但是,它確實有12.9億美元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲22.0億美元。
How Healthy Is Textron's Balance Sheet?
德事隆的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Textron had liabilities of US$4.36b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.14b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.29b in cash and US$888.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$7.32b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,德事隆的負債爲43.6億美元,一年後到期的負債爲51.4億美元。與此相抵消的是,它有12.9億美元的現金和8.88億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出73.2億美元。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Textron has a huge market capitalization of US$15.8b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
儘管這可能看起來很多,但還不錯,因爲德事隆擁有158億美元的巨額市值,因此如果需要,它可能會通過籌集資金來加強其資產負債表。但是,我們絕對希望留意其債務帶來過大風險的跡象。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。
Textron's net debt is only 1.3 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 18.0 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Fortunately, Textron grew its EBIT by 7.1% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Textron can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
德事隆的淨負債僅爲其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的1.3倍。其息稅前利潤可支付高達18.0倍的利息支出。因此,你可以爭辯說,它受到債務的威脅並不比大象受到老鼠的威脅更大。幸運的是,德事隆去年其息稅前利潤增長了7.1%,這使得債務負擔看起來更易於控制。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務的未來盈利能力將決定德事隆能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Textron produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 73% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,我們顯然需要研究該息稅前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,德事隆產生了穩健的自由現金流,相當於其息稅前利潤的73%,與我們的預期差不多。這種冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Textron's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Textron can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. We'd be motivated to research the stock further if we found out that Textron insiders have bought shares recently. If you would too, then you're in luck, since today we're sharing our list of reported insider transactions for free.
德事隆的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下的守門員的比賽中進球一樣輕鬆地處理債務。但是,更悲觀的是,我們對其總負債水平有點擔憂。考慮到所有這些因素,德事隆似乎可以輕鬆應對其當前的債務水平。當然,儘管這種槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但它確實帶來了更多的風險,因此值得關注。如果我們發現德事隆內部人士最近購買了股票,我們將有動力進一步研究該股。如果你也是,那麼你很幸運,因爲從今天起,我們將免費分享我們舉報的內幕交易清單。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。