What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Warrior Met Coal is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.16 = US$393m ÷ (US$2.6b - US$167m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

Thus, Warrior Met Coal has an ROCE of 16%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Metals and Mining industry average of 10% it's much better.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Warrior Met Coal compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Warrior Met Coal .

How Are Returns Trending?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Warrior Met Coal, we didn't gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 44%, but since then they've fallen to 16%. However it looks like Warrior Met Coal might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Our Take On Warrior Met Coal's ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Warrior Met Coal's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 278% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

Warrior Met Coal does have some risks though, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Warrior Met Coal that you might be interested in.

While Warrior Met Coal isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.