David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

What Is Oshkosh's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Oshkosh had debt of US$1.54b, up from US$1.10b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$160.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$1.38b.

How Healthy Is Oshkosh's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Oshkosh had liabilities of US$3.46b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$2.32b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$160.9m and US$2.47b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$3.14b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Oshkosh has a market capitalization of US$7.01b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Oshkosh has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.1. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.2 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On top of that, Oshkosh grew its EBIT by 34% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Oshkosh can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Oshkosh actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Oshkosh was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. Considering this range of data points, we think Oshkosh is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Oshkosh that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.