Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
Dollar Upside On The Cards Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Cautious Fed And Solid US Economic Data, Says Expert
"The yearly highs of 107.07 acts as a first immediate resistance for DXY, but a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 a support," added Sodhani.As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, Ukraine has launched U.K.-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia and the Kremlin has loosened its policy for using nuclear weapons. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is open to a peace deal brokered by President-elect Donald Trump.
隨着中東地緣政治緊張局勢升級，烏克蘭向俄羅斯發射了英國製造的風暴陰影導彈，克里姆林宮放寬了使用核武器的政策。然而，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京表示，他願意接受當選總統特朗普斡旋的和平協議。
These events combined with the strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious rhetoric on the interest rate cuts, may push the U.S. Dollar to new highs, says Kunal Sodhani, vice president of the global trading center at Shinhan Bank.
這些事件結合強勁的美國經濟數據以及聯儲局對利率削減的謹慎言辭，可能會推送美元達到新高， said Kunal Sodhani, 新漢銀行全球交易中心副總裁。
What Happened: Last week, the greenback hit a fresh 52-week high at 107.07 level. The U.S. dollar has rallied more than 3% since the Nov. 5 presidential elections as "Donald Trump's policies of higher tariffs and lower taxes are potential drivers of inflation and might slow the Fed's easing cycle," said Sodhani.
發生了什麼：上週，美元在107.07的水平上創下了52周的新高。自11月5日的總統選舉以來，美元已經上漲超過3%，因爲「特朗普概念政策的增稅和減稅可能是通貨膨脹的驅動因素，並可能減緩聯儲局的放鬆週期，」Sodhani說。
"The yearly highs of 107.07 acts as a first immediate resistance for DXY, but a break of it may let it test 108.60 while 105.10 a support," added Sodhani.
「107.07的年度高點是DXY的第一個立即支撐位，但突破後可能會測試108.60，而105.10是壓力位，」Sodhani補充道。
On Thursday, the dollar index sustained a level above 106.5, buoyed by expectations surrounding the policies of the incoming Trump administration, which could fuel inflation and therefore limit further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to Trading Economics. Sodhani sees an almost 2% upside from these levels.
週四，美元指數維持在106.5以上，受到對即將到來的特朗普政府政策的預期推動，這可能會推動通貨膨脹，因此限制聯儲局進一步的利率削減，根據Trading Economics的說法。Sodhani認爲從這些水平看有將近2%的上升空間。
Why It Matters: As per the data provided by Sodhani, the CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 59.1% chance of another 25 basis points cut by the Fed in the upcoming December 18 meeting. Whereas, there is a 40.9% chance that the rates may remain unchanged.
重要性：根據Sodhani提供的數據，cme FedWatch工具定價聯儲局在即將到來的12月18日會議上再次削減25個點子的可能性爲59.1%。而利率保持不變的可能性爲40.9%。
"While the rate-cut scenario is the most probable, traders have significantly pared back some of the rate-cut bets compared with a week ago," said Sodhani.
「雖然減息情景是最可能的，但與一週前相比，交易員已大幅削減了一些減息押注，」Sodhani說。
Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook in her speech at Charlottesville, Virginia, remained confident that the Fed will lower inflation toward its 2% goal, but she didn't reveal whether she will support a rate cut next month.
聯儲局董事會成員Lisa Cook在弗吉尼亞州夏洛茨維爾的演講中對聯儲局將通貨膨脹降低到2%的目標充滿信心，但她沒有透露她是否會支持下個月的減息。
On the other hand, Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, speaking at West Palm Beach, Florida added that despite seeing "considerable progress" on inflation, it seems to have "stalled in recent months," meaning the Fed should be cautious. She commented that neutral rates could not be as low as expected, by some officials at the FOMC.
另一方面，聯邦儲備委員會委員米歇爾·博曼在佛羅里達州西棕櫚灘發表講話時表示，儘管在通脹方面看到"相當大的進展"，但似乎在最近幾個月"停滯不前"，這意味着聯儲局應該保持謹慎。她評論說中立利率可能無法像一些FOMC官員所預期的那樣低。
What Are Other Analysts Saying: According to a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs's outlook for the last two years predicted the U.S. currency would retreat from lofty valuations. "We now expect tariffs to feature prominently in the U.S. policy mix next year, along with some further fiscal changes." Tariffs, alongside a booming economy and rising U.S. asset prices are, "a potent combination for the (stronger) dollar," they added.
其他分析師的看法：根據彭博社的報道，高盛對過去兩年的展望預測美國貨幣將從高估值中回落。"我們現在預計關稅將在明年的美國政策組合中佔據重要地位，同時還會有一些進一步的財政變化。" 關稅，加上蓬勃發展的經濟和上升的美國資產價格，"是（更強）美元的強大組合，"他們補充道。
