Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket
Potential 'Healthy Correction' For An 'Expensive' Market Looms As US Economic Growth And Earnings Slow, Says Asset Manager: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trade Lower In Premarket
Ahead of the potential market correction, Brian Arcese from Foord Asset Management has highlighted concerns over the U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. These factors could trigger a correction if they continue to slow down.
在潛在的市場調整之前,福德資產管理公司的布萊恩·阿塞斯強調了對美國經濟增長和企業收益的擔憂。如果這些因素繼續放緩,可能會觸發修正。
What Happened: Arcese warned that a market correction could occur if U.S. GDP or earnings growth slows. Arcese noted that the S&P 500 has been "expensive for quite a while," with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 27, CNBC reported on Friday.
發生了什麼:Arcese警告說,如果美國GDP或收益增長放緩,市場可能會出現調整。CNBC週五報道,Arcese指出,標準普爾500指數 「在相當長的一段時間內一直處於昂貴狀態」,市盈率超過27。
"We do think that a correction would be healthy, but you will need some type of catalyst for that correction to take place," he said, highlighting two potential catalysts for a correction: slowing economic growth and inflation increases.
他說:「我們確實認爲修正是健康的,但您需要某種催化劑才能進行修正。」 他強調了修正的兩個潛在催化劑:經濟增長放緩和通貨膨脹上升。
U.S. GDP growth was less than anticipated in the third quarter, and inflation rose to 2.6% in October, as per recent data. He emphasized that high corporate earnings expectations, particularly outside IT and communication services, could also trigger a correction if growth slows.
根據最近的數據,美國第三季度GDP增長低於預期,10月份通貨膨脹率升至2.6%。他強調,如果增長放緩,較高的企業收益預期,尤其是信息技術和通信服務以外的企業收益預期,也可能引發修正。
Arcese remarked on the unusual combination of factors like GDP growth, earnings growth, and falling inflation and interest rates, which he described as rare. He noted that while utilities are more expensive than before, they remain less costly than the broader market, with growth driven by increased electricity demand from data centers and AI advancements.
Arcese談到了GDP增長、收益增長以及通貨膨脹和利率下降等因素的不尋常組合,他形容這種組合很少見。他指出,儘管公用事業比以前更昂貴,但它們的成本仍然低於整個市場,增長是由數據中心電力需求的增加和人工智能進步推動的。
Why It Matters: The concerns raised by Arcese align with recent warnings from other financial experts. David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, recently labeled the current market as "the most expensive of all time," citing the high Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.
爲何重要:Arcese提出的擔憂與其他金融專家最近的警告一致。Greenlight Capital創始人大衛·艾因霍恩最近將當前市場標記爲 「有史以來最昂貴的市場」,理由是希勒經週期性調整後的市盈率很高。
Similarly, Stifel's Barry Bannister predicted a 12% market drop by the end of 2024, driven by high valuations and speculative risks. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple is nearing historic highs, reminiscent of previous market peaks.
同樣,Stifel的巴里·班尼斯特預測,在高估值和投機風險的推動下,到2024年底,市場將下跌12%。標準普爾500指數的市盈倍數接近歷史新高,讓人想起之前的市場峯值。
Despite these concerns, Goldman Sachs forecasts strong U.S. economic growth in 2025, with a 2.5% GDP boost, suggesting potential resilience in the face of current market challenges.
儘管存在這些擔憂,但高盛預測2025年美國經濟將強勁增長,GDP增長2.5%,這表明面對當前的市場挑戰,潛在的彈性。
Price Action: As of Friday, according to Benzinga Pro, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) that tracks the S&P 500 closely witnessed a 25.60% increase in its year-to-date (YTD) returns while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw a hike of 25.43%. However, during pre-market hours on Friday, both the ETFs were trading slightly lower.
價格走勢:根據Benzinga Pro的數據,截至週五,追蹤標準普爾500指數的SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託基金(紐約證券交易所代碼:SPY)的年初至今(YTD)回報率增長了25.60%,而景順QQ信託1系列(納斯達克股票代碼:QQQ)的漲幅爲25.43%。但是,在週五的盤前時段,兩隻ETF的交易價格均略有下降。
On Friday, futures show a decline across major indices: Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.40%, Dow Jones down 0.29%, and R2K down 0.08%.
週五,期貨顯示主要指數下跌:納斯達克100指數下跌0.51%,標準普爾500指數下跌0.40%,道瓊斯指數下跌0.29%,0.2萬蘭特下跌0.08%。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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