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We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think THOR Industries (NYSE:THO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲索爾工業(紐交所:THO)可以保持債務居前
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/22 22:43

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that THOR Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

禾倫·巴菲特曾 famously 說:'波動性遠非風險的同義詞。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是想看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務負擔過重會導致破產。我們注意到索爾工業公司(紐交所:THO)在其資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,這些債務對股東來說是個問題嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務帶來了什麼風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

一般來說,當一家公司無法輕鬆還清債務,無論是通過融資還是憑藉自身的現金流時,債務才會真正成爲問題。資本主義的一個重要組成部分是「創造性毀滅」的過程,其中失敗的企業會被他們的銀行家無情地清算。然而,更多的(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司不得不以超低的價格發行股票,永久性稀釋股東的權益,僅僅是爲了改善其資產負債表。不過,通過替代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資於增長的企業的極好工具。當我們考慮一家公司的債務使用情況時,首先看的是現金和債務的關係。

What Is THOR Industries's Debt?

索爾工業的債務是什麼?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that THOR Industries had debt of US$1.13b at the end of July 2024, a reduction from US$1.30b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$501.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$632.6m.

下面的圖像(您可以點擊以獲得更詳細的信息)顯示,索爾工業在2024年7月底的債務爲11.3億美金,較一年前的13億美金有所減少。另一方面,它有50130萬美金的現金,導致淨債務約爲63260萬美金。

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NYSE:THO Debt to Equity History November 22nd 2024
紐交所:THO的債務與股本歷史 2024年11月22日

How Strong Is THOR Industries' Balance Sheet?

索爾工業的資產負債表有多強?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that THOR Industries had liabilities of US$1.57b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.38b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$501.3m as well as receivables valued at US$700.9m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.74b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

從最新的資產負債表數據來看,我們可以看到索爾工業的短期負債爲15.7億美元,長期負債爲13.8億美元。抵消這些負債後,索爾工業有50130萬美元的現金,以及70090萬美元的應收賬款,均爲短期到期。因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出17.4億美元。

THOR Industries has a market capitalization of US$5.75b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

索爾工業的市值爲57.5億美元,因此如果有需要,它很可能能夠籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。然而,仔細查看其償還債務的能力仍然是有意義的。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們使用兩個主要指標來告知我們債務水平與盈利的關係。第一個是淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,而第二個是其息稅前利潤(EBIT)覆蓋其利息費用(或其利息覆蓋,簡稱)。這種方法的優點在於我們考慮了債務的絕對數量(通過淨債務與EBITDA比率)和與該債務相關的實際利息費用(通過其利息覆蓋比率)。

While THOR Industries's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.90 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.8 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Shareholders should be aware that THOR Industries's EBIT was down 28% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if THOR Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

儘管索爾工業的低負債與EBITDA比率爲0.90,表明其使用債務的程度僅爲適度,但去年EBIT僅能覆蓋利息支出4.8倍,這讓我們感到擔憂。因此,我們建議密切關注融資成本對業務的影響。股東應該意識到索爾工業的EBIT去年下降了28%。如果這種收益趨勢持續下去,那麼償還其債務將和把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個開始的地方。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定索爾工業能否在時間的推移中強化其資產負債表。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,裏面顯示了分析師的盈利預測。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, THOR Industries recorded free cash flow worth 76% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要的是冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIt中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在最近三年中,索爾工業的自由現金流佔其EBIt的76%,這一比例比較正常,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅收。這筆冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

THOR Industries's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about THOR Industries's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for THOR Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.

索爾工業的EBIt增長率在此分析中是一個真正的負面因素,儘管我們考慮的其他因素要好得多。毫無疑問,它將EBIt轉化爲自由現金流的能力非常出色。查看所有這些數據讓我們對索爾工業的債務水平感到有些謹慎。雖然債務在潛在回報上確實有其優點,但我們認爲股東應該認真考慮債務水平可能使股票風險更高。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個好的起點。然而,並不是所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表上——遠非如此。例如,我們發現了一個你在此投資前應該注意的索爾工業的警告信號。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的特別公司列表(所有公司都有盈利增長的記錄)。這是免費的。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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